INTERNATIONAL TRADE: AI-sensitive Exports Remained Strong In January

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• In FX, despite today’s early gains, EURUSD maintains a softer tone. Last week’s bearish extension resulted in a breach of support at 1.1659, the Jan 5 low. The move down cancels a recent reversal signal and suggests a bearish theme appears likely to dominate near-term. Sights are on 1.1598, a 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg. Initial resistance is at 1.1706, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a second possible reversal signal.
• The trend theme in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3380. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.3312, the Dec 17 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3568, the Jan 6 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started on Nov 4.
• Friday’s climb in USDJPY reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair traded to a fresh trend high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 158.29, a 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Support to watch lies at 155.35, the 50-day EMA.

You are invited to join an MNI Webcast with Alberto Musalem, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.

Details below:

• Speaker: Alberto Musalem, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.
• Topic of discussion: ‘U.S. Economy & Monetary Policy.’
• Date: Tuesday January 13 from 10am to 10:35ET; 3pm to 3:35pm GMT
• This event will be run as a Zoom Webinar and is a public, on-the-record event.

To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration