US DATA: A Wide Range To Inflation Expectations By Party [2/2]
Mar-28 15:07
- We may revert on the breakdown of inflation expectations by political leaning later. The values we see from Bloomberg are currently unrevised from the preliminary release despite the upward revisions for overall measures.
- Should those lack of revisions be correct (for instance if there were more democrats completing the survey since the preliminary cut-off), the preliminary distribution showed democrats expecting 1Y inflation at 6.5% vs just 0.1% for republicans, or 4.6% and 1.3% respectively for 5-10Y expectations.
- Recall that independents were notable in the preliminary release as well, with the 1Y at 4.4% after 3.7% in Feb and 3.1% in Jan, and the 5-10Y at 3.7% after 3.3% in Feb and 3.2% in Jan.
- Values by political leaning from the March preliminary report (possibly still unrevised with today's final release):
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: Post-New Home Sales
Feb-26 15:07
- Brief two-way flow as Treasuries maintain mildly weaker levels after lower than expected New Home sales for January, but large up-revisions to prior.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 110-14.5 (-2), well inside technicals: resistance at 110-21 (High Feb 25), support below at 110-00 (High Feb 7 and a recent breakout point).
- Curves flatter: 2s10s -1.972 at 17.692; 5s30s -1.583 at 40.802.
- Cross asset: stocks moderately bid (SPX eminis +35.50 at 6005.25); Gold weaker (-11.71 at 2903.27), Crude steady (WTI at 68.93), Bbg US$ index firmer, near highs at 1288.39 (+3.71).
MNI: US JAN NEW HOME SALES -10.5% TO 0.657M SAAR
Feb-26 15:00
- MNI: US JAN NEW HOME SALES -10.5% TO 0.657M SAAR
- US DEC NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 0.734M SAAR
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
Feb-26 14:53
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6409 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 0.6309 @ 14:52 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 0.6300/6231 Intraday low / Low Feb 10
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD is trading lower today. The latest pullback appears corrective, however, the pair has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6316. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6231, the Feb 10 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6402/14 - the 100-dma and 38.2% of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg respectively.
