STIR: A Renewed Hawkish Shift On Geopol Grounds Before A Labor Data Heavy Docket
Mar-05 11:19
- US 2026 rates are back towards Tuesday’s most hawkish levels since June, with crude futures climbing further on net albeit off earlier highs as markets remain particularly attentive to signs of escalation/off-ramps in the Middle East.
- Cumulative cuts from 3.64% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 3bp Apr, 10bp Jun, 17.5bp Jul, 28.5bp Sep, 31bp Oct and 39.5bp Dec.
- SOFR futures are 4.5 ticks lower through most 2027 contracts, with the terminal implied yield of 3.18% (U7) in the upper half of the ytd range of 2.94-3.285%.
- There’s a heavy collection of labor data today, with Challenger job cuts in Feb (0730ET), preliminary Q4 estimates for ULCs/productivity (0830ET), Revelio Labs labor statistics for Feb (0830ET), the final Feb update for the Chicago Fed’s u/e rate nowcast (0830ET) and the usual weekly jobless claims update (0830ET).
- Today’s Fedspeak is limited to VC Supervision Bowman (voter, dove) at an event on banking supervision and the economy at 1315ET (no text) before Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’27 voter, typically dovish but a hawkish dissent in Dec25) at a Foreign Policy Association dinner at 1900ET.
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Historical bullets
EURIBOR: ERU7/Z7 Sold
Feb-03 11:19
ERU7/Z7 ~15K changes hands at 6.5 in recent trade, mostly sold and was initially seller-driven.
SONIA OPTIONS: Call Structures In Demand In Recent Trade
Feb-03 11:15
Demand for call structures in recent trade:
- SFIM6 96.40/96.50/96.65/96.75 call condor paper paid 6.0 on 10K.
- SFIK6 96.60/96.75 call spread vs. 96.53 paper paid 2.0 on 10K
AUD: FX Exchange traded Option
Feb-03 11:15
- AUDUSD (6th Mar) 72.00c, bought for 0.20 in ~3.5k (multiple clips).
The Underlying is trading close to where the spot is at 70.035.
