USD: A red start for the Dollar
- A red start for the Dollar against G10 into the European session, the standout Currency is once again the Yen, having nearly fully reversed Yesterday losses.
- Yesterday's range was 149.53/151.23 (low/high), USDJPY is back below 150.00, but just off the 149.66 printed overnight low, ahead of that 149.53 range level.
- Similar to what has been noted in the price action in Bund and OATs, the EUR is steady but mixed against G10 following the French non confidence Vote in France Yesterday.
- The Yen is up 0.21% versus the EUR, as its reversed Yesterday's sell off, and the Dollar is the worst performer, but by just 0.18% and well within a tight 1.0508/1.0539 range (low/high).
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Short-Term Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5816.84/5927.25 20-day EMA / High Oct 17 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 5754.50 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 5724.00 Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 5637.60 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 5600.25 Low Sep 12
S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower last Thursday and the contract is trading just above its recent low. Price has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - an important short-term bearish development. The break lower signals scope for an extension and has exposed the next support at 5724.00, the Oct 2 low. Clearance of this level would open 5637.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is 5816.84, the 20-day EMA.
STIR: Euribor Futures Stick To Tight Ranges Ahead of US Election Results
Euribor futures are flat to -2.0 ticks through the blues, having traded in a tight overnight range ahead of tonight’s US election results.
- ECB-dated OIS remain broadly within recent ranges, with 28bps of cuts priced through December and 120bps of easing priced through September 2025.
- ECB’s Vujcic is scheduled to speak on Croatia’s Euro adoption at 0845GMT/0945CET, while Executive Board member Schnabel gives a lecture at Harvard University at 1830GMT (text to be released on the ECB’s website).
- See here for a summary of last week’s ECB-speak.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Dec-24 | 2.879 | -28.4 |
| Jan-25 | 2.601 | -56.2 |
| Mar-25 | 2.356 | -80.7 |
| Apr-25 | 2.209 | -95.5 |
| Jun-25 | 2.068 | -109.5 |
| Jul-25 | 2.009 | -115.4 |
| Sep-25 | 1.966 | -119.8 |
| Oct-25 | 1.960 | -120.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence Remains Intact
- RES 4: $2832.8 - 3.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $2790.1 - High Oct 31
- PRICE: $2741.1 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: $2724.8 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2712.7 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2673.3 - Low Oct 17
- SUP 4: $2638.6 - 50-day EMA
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $2800.0 handle next. Firm support is $2712.7, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a short-term top.
