STIR: A Little Over 40bp Of BoE Easing Still Priced For Current Cycle
GBP STIRs little changed to a touch less dovish on the day given the apparent agreement between U.S. President Trump & NATO re: Greenland (outlined in recent bullets).
- SONIA futures flat to -1.5.
- BoE-dated OIS contracts covering ’26 meetings are flat to 2bp less dovish, showing 42.5bp of easing for the current cycle, with the next 25bp cut still not fully discounted until the end of the June MPC (~80% odds of a move discounted come the end of the April meeting).
- Dec MPC pricing sticks to the ~40-48bp of easing range that has prevailed for much of January.
- PSNB data pointed to slightly lower than-expected borrowing requirements in December, while mixed messaging from the Labour Party re: the potential rejoining of the EU customs union remains evident (albeit pushed back against by party leadership).
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Feb-26 | 3.727 | +0.2 |
Mar-26 | 3.656 | -6.9 |
Apr-26 | 3.522 | -20.2 |
Jun-26 | 3.444 | -28.0 |
Jul-26 | 3.361 | -36.3 |
Sep-26 | 3.336 | -38.8 |
Nov-26 | 3.298 | -42.6 |
Dec-26 | 3.308 | -41.6 |
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Historical bullets
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 7021.79 0.618 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 6988.00 High Dec 11
- RES 1: 6936.25 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6925.00 @ 07:25 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 6835.96/6771.50-day EMA / Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 6737.71 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
- SUP 3: 6678.58 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
- SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21
The recent pullback in S&P E-Minis appears to have been a correction. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement of the recent bull phase between Nov 21 - Dec 11. This would open 6737.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.
WTI TECHS: (G6) Remains Below Resistance
- RES 4: $70.16 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: $64.97 - High Sep 26
- RES 2: $61.25 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $58.71 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $57.83 @ 07:17 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: $54.89 - Low Dec 16
- SUP 2: $54.71 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 3: $53.77 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
- SUP 4: $52.27 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has been breached. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend and opens $53.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.71, the 50- day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $4578.3 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
- RES 3: $4536.0 - 1.500 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
- RES 2: $4500.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $4497.7 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $4482.9 @ 07:16 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: $4259.9 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $4170.3 - Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: $4128.6 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18
The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and another fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The metal has traded through the psychological $4400.0 handle and this opens $4500.0 next, ahead of $4536.0, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4259.9, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
