AUD: Q1 GDP Headlines Next Week's Busy Data Calendar
The A$ is finishing the week strongly, having broken above 0.7120. At this stage we are up 1.42% for the week to 0.7140 (a similar gain to last week). Better equity risk appetite and broad-based USD weakness have been the main drivers. Next week's data calendar is busy but unlikely to shift sentiment a great deal around the RBA outlook.
- Next Tuesday delivers more Q1 GDP partials. Net exports are out and expected to subtract -1.4ppt from growth. Company profits are expected to rise 4%, while inventories are forecast to rise 0.7%
- Private sector credit for April and building approvals (forecast -1.0%) are also out on Tuesday.
- On Wednesday, house prices are out along with Q1 GDP. At this stage, the market forecast is a 0.6% quarterly rise, taking YoY growth to 2.8%, from 4.2% Q4 last year. Commodity prices are also out that day.
- Trade figures print Thursday. Exports expected to rise 1%. Home loans data rounds out the week on Friday (expected at -0.8%).
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Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Maintains A Firmer Tone
- RES 4: 0.8553 High Dec 14 2020
- RES 3: 0.8512 High Mar 31 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8501 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.8468 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.8457 @ 06:36 BST Apr 27
- SUP 1: 0.8393/8363 Low Apr 26 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and key short-term support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
EURGBP maintains a firmer tone. Recent trong gains have resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8405, the Apr 11 high, which marked a key short-term resistance. The break of this level highlighted a bullish development and has also resulted in a break above 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. An extension would open 0.8512. Initial firm support lies at 0.8363, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Impulsive Sell-Off Extends
- RES 4: 1.3135 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.3090/3147 High Apr 21 / High Apr 14
- RES 2: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 1: 1.2772/2877 High Apr 26 / High Apr 25
- PRICE: 1.2597 @ 06:31 BST Apr 27
- SUP 1: 1.2560 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.2495 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan 21 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.2423 2.236 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.2375 2.382 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing
GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday, extending the current downtrend. The pair has cleared 1.2974, Apr 13 low, as well as 1.2676 last printed in September 2020. The trend is in technically oversold territory: the 14d RSI is now at 22 - the lowest point since March 2020 and the initial wave of lockdowns that followed COVID. A reversal pattern is required though to signal a base. The focus is 1.2495, a Fibonacci retracement.
UK: Timeline of key events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 27-Apr | 1100 | Apr | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-Apr | 0001 | Apr | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 03-May | 0930 | Apr | IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 03-May | 1615 | ---- | BOE Mutton Panellist at Bankers Association |
| 04-May | 0930 | May | BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals |
| 05-May | 0930 | Apr | IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Final) |
| 05-May | 1200 | ---- | Bank Of England Interest Rate / QE |
| 06-May | 0930 | Apr | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06-May | 1015 | ---- | BOE Mann Speaker at European University Institute |
| 06-May | 1215 | ---- | BOE Pill Monetary Policy Report National Agency briefing |
| 06-May | 1600 | ---- | BOE Tenreyro Lecture at Irish Economic Association |
| 10-May | 0001 | Apr | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-May | 0700 | Mar | Index of Services/GDP/ Production/Construction/Trade |
| 17-May | 0700 | Mar | Labour Market Survey |
