RATINGS: A Busier Round Of After Hours Updates Scheduled This Week
Rating reviews of note scheduled for after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch on Estonia (current rating: A+; Outlook Stable)
- Morningstar DBRS on the EFSF (current rating: AAA, Stable Trend), the ESM (current rating: AAA, Stable Trend), Portugal (current rating: A, Positive Trend) & Switzerland (current rating: AAA, Stable Trend)
- Scope Ratings on China (current rating: A; Outlook Stable), the EFSF (current rating: AA+; Outlook Stable), the ESM (current rating: AAA; Outlook Stable), Poland (current rating: A; Outlook Stable) & Slovakia (current rating: A; Outlook Stable)
- Please use this link to access the indicative sovereign rating review schedule covering the five most notable rating agencies for 2025.
- Note that this schedule is indicative only and ratings can be reviewed on an ad-hoc basis. Rating agencies may also adjust their schedules during the year.
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USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: 1.4485 High Mar 25 2020
- RES 3: 1.4461 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4352 2.50 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4331 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4326 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 2: 1.4119/3980 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair continues to appreciate. The recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The move higher exposes 1.4352 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4119, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
ECB: Wunsch Echoes Prior Comments, Comfortably With 4 Rate Cuts
A selection of headlines from National Bank of Belgium Governor Wunsch at Reuters' Global Markets Forum screen broadly in line with prior comments, both before and after the ECB’s December decision (headlines all Reuters):
In line with his interview with Nikkei on November 28:
- “LARGER EURO DEPRECIATION WOULD CUSHION TARIFFS' IMPACT ON GROWTH, MAKE IT LARGER ON INFLATION”
- “ECB'S WUNSCH TO GMF: I GUESS WE'LL LAND WITH RATES SOMEWHERE AROUND 2%”
Other headlines of note:
- “FOUR RATE CUTS IS A MEANINGFUL SCENARIO I FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH” RTRS
- Echoing ECB Schnabel’s speech yesterday: “IF ECONOMY STRUCTURALLY WEAK, INFLATION CAN BE LOWER AND WE'L REACT TO THAT”, but “NOT OUR ROLE TO SUPER-CHARGE THE ECONOMY IN FACE OF STRUCTURAL ISSUES”
- “NOT SURE THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS THAT YOU HAVE TO REACT FORCEFULLY TO INFLATION LOWER THAN 2%”
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension
- RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12
- RES 2: 0.6523 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6433 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6314 @ 08:03 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 0.6300 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23
- SUP 3: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6210 Low Oct 21 ‘22
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6259 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6433, the 20-day EMA.
