The spread between the 6-month Euribor fixing and the 6-month ESTR swap rate has widened ~7bps to 26bps over the past week, owing to a gradual - but notable - rise in Euribor fixings. We haven’t seen a clear driver/explanation for the rise in the fixings, but it’s worth highlighting that the Euribor/ESTR spread still remains below the 29bps seen in early May and does not look out of place when plotted against Eurozone excess liquidity.
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Treasury had $144B in "extraordinary measures" available to keep the government financed as of June 11 per a release Friday. That is up from $84B a week earlier and the highest since April 28.
As we head into the June Fed meeting week, market pricing is reflective of the FOMC’s messaging (that we describe in our preview):
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections are below.
MNI Markets Team Expectations For June 2025 Summary Of Economic Projections Medians