US: 63% Of Americans Think SCOTUS Should Limit Trump's Tariffs - Marquette

Continuing on with the dovish end of the table:

• 4 End-2026 Dots At 3.125%: We think this level (suggestive of 2x 25bp cuts this year) contains key FOMC leaders Powell and Williams, with Jefferson alongside though Williams is probably the biggest risk to a higher Dot (he said on Dec 19 "I don't personally have a sense of urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now because I think the cuts we've made have positioned us really well"; possibly he could be swapped with Paulson though we tend to believe he and Powell are closely aligned on getting rates down toward 3% over the coming quarters. Daly's inclusion here on the dovish side of the median reflects her apparent concern over the labor market going into the December meeting though we haven't heard from her since.
• 2 End-2026 Dots At 2.875%: Both Goolsbee and Waller have suggested they are in the 2.9-3.1% range for end-year rates. Goolsbee said on Dec 12 that despite his December dissent, "if you look at the dot plot, I'm one of the most optimistic folks about how rates can go down in the coming year", pointing to a figure lower than the median (and implies that he envisaged fairly aggressive cuts this year to the tune of 100bp when he filled in his Dot Plot). Gov Waller said on Dec 17  that his 2026 rate dot submission was below the FOMC median at  "about three", saying "maybe we're 50 to 100 basis points off of neutral" - we split the difference and put him at 75bp of easing.
• 1 End-2026 Dot At 2.375%: We haven't heard from Gov Bowman in a while but as one of the biggest advocates of rate cuts on the FOMC we assume she is well below the median voter for end-2026 rates.
• 1 End-2026 Dot At 2.125%: We know Gov Miran had a 2.1% end-2026 rate in his projections, because he told MNI on Jan 5 that he penciled in an implied 150bp of rate cuts in December's projections vs 100bp in his September forecast. “My previous dot was preconditioned upon the Fed pursuing the right policy, and as long as we keep policy at what I think of as materially too tight, we're reducing my growth expectations in the future,” he told MNI. “That requires looser policy now to offset that.”

Taking into account comments from several FOMC participants since the December Dot Plot projections were released, MNI's compilation of end-2026 funds rates by member is below (A digest of Fed commentary after the December meeting through the FOMC Minutes is here,) As usual there is a lot of educated guesswork involved in placing the 19 dots though we do have a couple of members at both ends of the table who have been pretty specific on their views. 2026 voters' names are in green, and the key theme here is that the bulk of the current voters (9/12) see at least 1 cut this year though there is a fine split (6/6) between those who see 2 or more cuts and those who see 1 or fewer.

• Recall that the median "dot" was at 3.375%, implying rates 25bp lower by year-end from the current rate of 3.625%. We start at the "top" of the table. 6 estimates in the 2025 dots assumed no December rate cut (from 3.875%). Those 6 we think were: Bostic, Goolsbee, Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, and Schmid.
• 3 End-2026 Dots At 3.875%: Of the December "dissenters", we think Bostic, Hammack, and Schmid also penciled in no cuts in 2026 from that level. Bostic said on Dec 16 that he would have preferred to hold rates in December and didn't pencil in any cuts in 2026, which we assume to mean a steady 3.875% rate throughout. Hammack said on Dec 12 that "we've got policy that's in that range of neutral...I would prefer to be on a slightly more restrictive stance". And having dissented at the final meetings of 2025 in favor of a hold, it stands to reason Schmid is in favor of holding through the next year.
• 4 End-2026 Dots At 3.625%: Here we place Collins and Musalem, neither of whom dissented against the December cut when they were voters, but who appear to have a fairly high bar to subsequent cuts. Kashkari and Logan, who do vote this year, could possibly be interchanged with one of the 3.875% Dots but either way they are reluctant to cut this year. Indeed Kashkari said this week he already saw policy as neutral.
• 4 End-2026 Dots At 3.375%: We've placed current voters Barr, Cook and Paulson here, as well as 2027 voter Barkin. The hardest call here is Paulson who has expressed openness to modest additional cuts by year-end should the data cooperate, so could be a notch lower in the table.

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.1808 High Dec 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 1.1765 High Jan 2 
• PRICE: 1.1690 @ 16:24 GMT Jan 6
• SUP 1: 1.1659 Low Jan 5 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.1639 50.0% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 1.1615 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.1598 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg

A strong recovery from Monday’s low print in EURUSD is a bullish development and marks a possible reversal of the recent corrective pullback between Dec 24 - Jan 5. Yesterday’s price pattern is a bullish long legged doji, also known as a dragonfly doji, and is a bullish reversal pattern. It highlights a key short-term support at 1.1659, the Jan 5 low. A stronger recovery would open 1.1808, the Dec 24 high.