STIR: 2 Fed Cuts Still Showing Through Year-End After Data
Aug-28 12:49
Fed pricing little changed following the firmer secondary Q2 GDP data and inline to slightly-lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims data, with little to change the overall economic narrative.
- Some offset also comes from mark down in the secondary unrounded core PCE release.
- FOMC-dated OIS contracts are flat to 1bp less dovish post-release, showing 21bp of easing for next month, 34bp through October and 54bp through December.
- SOFR-implied terminal rate pricing continues to hover just below 3.00%.
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US TSY FUTURES: US Tnotes look to test Friday's high
Jul-29 12:48
- There's still way below average Volumes in Treasuries, but some pick up in sizes have gone through in the past 10 minutes or so with circa 35k in that period.
- Friday's high in TYU5 is at 11.03, but seeing better around 111.05 initially.
- In Yield terms, next support only comes at 4.30%, Today would equate to 111.16+.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $2B NextEra Energy 2Y on Tap
Jul-29 12:47
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 07/29 $2B NextEra Energy 2Y +95a
- 07/29 $Benchmark Sherwin Williams 3% +75a, 5Y +90a, 10Y +110a
- $19.84B Priced Monday, largely tied to $12B Mexico 5Y issuance
US TSYS: Post-Advance Goods/ Wholesale Inventories React
Jul-29 12:36
- Treasury futures holding near early session highs, little react to Advance Goods Trade Balance, import decline and less negative goods export. Wholesale inventories slightly higher than expected, retail inventories in-line.
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y contract trades +7.5 at 111-00 vs. 111-00.5 high; initial technical resistance above at 111-14.5 (High Jul 22). Key support remains intact at 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. A move through this support would reinstate a bearish theme.
- Curves flatter: 2s10s -0.168 at 47.617, 5s30s -1.984 at 96.721.
- Cross asset: Bbg US$ index near recent high: BBDXY +3.65 at 1211.75; stocks mildly higher (SPX eminis +13.5 at 6436.25); gold firmer +5.95 at 3320.56.
