UK T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 1/3/6-month UKTBs

US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET

• 11/12 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.9%, --)
• 11/12 0920-35 Fed's Williams keynote speech at Treasury Market Conference
• 11/12 1000 Fed's Paulson speaks on Fintech
• 11/12 1020 Fed Gov. Waller speaks on Payments
• 11/12 1045-1110 Tsy Sec Bessent at Tsy Mkt Conf
• 11/12 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
• 11/12 1215 Fed's Bostic speaks at Atlanta Economics Club
• 11/12 1230 Fed Gov. Miran speaks in Fireside Chat
• 11/12 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note (91282CPJ4)
• 11/12 1300 WH Press Sec Leavitt press briefing
• 11/12 1550-1610 NY Fed SOMA Manager Perli closing remarks
• 11/12 1600 Fed’s Collins speaks at Community Banking Conference
• 11/12 1930 Trump hosts private dinner

Source: Bloomberg, WH Press Pool, MNI

• A short-term bear cycle in Bunds remains intact, with initial resistance at 129.31 (20-day EMA) untested. Intraday, Bunds are down 13 ticks at 129.10. With market moving headline flow light, Bunds appear to be taking cues from the 1% uptick in European equity futures.
• German yields are up to 1bp higher today, and 20/30-year Bund supply is now in the rear view. Results were generally acceptable, though the 30-year line saw slightly weaker demand metrics than the 20-year.
• Ahead of the supply, we saw what looked to be an RX/UB steepener trade in futures (~E325k DV01), which helped German 10s30s to a session high of ~59.5bps.
• 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds have narrowed as a result of the equity rally. OATs outperform, with the 10-year spread to Bunds down 2bps to ~74.5bps – the lowest since August,
• The EUR 10s30s swap curve has steepened almost 7bps since October 30, and is on track for a fresh cycle closing high at ~29bp. Confirmation of/reiterations surrounding the transition plans of large Dutch pension funds has reignited steepener interest, albeit with positioning in these trades already deemed to be somewhat heavy. 30bp presents the next obvious area of upside interest, followed by the Oct 7 ’21 closing level (35.03bp).
• German final October HICP confirmed flash estimates at 2.3% Y/Y, while Italian industrial production rebounded in September, rising 2.8% M/M, well above the 1.5% consensus.
• ECB’s de Guindos is scheduled to speak later this morning. We don’t expect any new signals.