JGBS AUCTION: 10-Year JGB Auction Results

The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) sells Y 1,982.8bn 10-Year JGBs:

• Average Yield: 1.404% (prev. 1.260%)
• Average Price: 98.24 (prev. 99.47)
• High Yield: 1.429% (prev. 1.263%)
• Low price: 98.03 (prev. 99.44)
• % Allotted At High Yield: 18.3344% (prev. 37.1592%)
• Bid/Cover:  2.6566x (prev. 3.1809x)

USD/CNH has moved comfortably off earlier highs (7.3068). The last near 7.2840. This puts us close to both the 20 and 50-day EMA support points. Further south is the 100-day EMA (near 7.2620).

• The little change in the USD/CNY fixing continues to limit USD/CNH upside. The weaker US-CH yield differential backdrop may also be aiding lower levels in the pair.
• Remarks by President Trump that a weaker CNY policy (he made similar allegations against Japan) could see tariff penalties, may also be in play. This reflects a stronger yuan as being seen as reducing trade tensions, all else equal. However, the sides still appear reasonably apart at this stage on any type of trade deal.
• Earlier remarks from the MOFCOM also didn't suggest any significant retaliatory measures from China to the US's latest step. Our policy team posted: "China will take countermeasures to safeguard its interests and hopes the U.S. can return to the right track of properly resolving differences via dialogue as soon as possible, said the spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, following the U.S. imposing an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting Mar 4."
• Still, some of the sell-side bias remains for higher USD/CNH levels in response to tariffs. Nomura stating 7.4600 is an upside target for the pair (per BBG), based off China's response during the 2018-2019 trade conflict period. 

January retail sales values rose 0.3% m/m to be up 3.8% y/y, in line with consensus, with 3-month momentum remaining solid. Through the volatility retail spending has improved since March and the RBA is expecting private consumption to recover to a still soft 1.8% y/y in Q4 2025 up from 0.7% in Q4 2024 helped by higher real income growth. 

• The rise was broad-based in January with all major components increasing except household goods, which had benefited from discounting during the festive period. Clothing rose 2.0% m/m, other retailing +2.4% m/m and restaurants 1.1% m/m.
• Large-scale events had boosted food expenditure as well as the resolution of supply-chain issues in Victoria.
• Monthly retail sales data will be replaced by household spending from July. January expenditure is released on Friday and forecast to rise 0.5% m/m and 3.4% y/y after 0.4% & 4.3% in December. 

Australia retail sales %