BTP TECHS: (M2) Trading Near Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 111.430 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 111.327 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 1: 110.915 Intraday high
• PRICE: 110.795 @ 05:35 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 110.775 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 110.602 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2020 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 110.590 Low Jun 10/11 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 110.475 Low May 12 2014 (cont)

Schatz futures remain vulnerable and have resumed their downtrend today. The continued move lower strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend plus, it marks an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 111.00 has been cleared and this paves the way for a move towards 110.602, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111.170.

Asia-Pac equity indices are mixed, mirroring Wall St.’s performance on Friday.

• The Hang Seng outperformed, reversing earlier losses to sit 1.1% higher at typing. Losses observed in the utilities and real estate developer sub-indices were countered by gains in China-based technology large-caps, with the Hang Seng Technology Index sitting 3.0% better off at typing. To elaborate, sentiment in Chinese technology giants received a lift from Meituan’s Q4 earnings delivered last Friday, with the latter rallying 14.4% come the lunch bell.
• The CSI300 is 0.8% worse off at typing, underperforming major regional equity index peers despite recovering from declines of up to ~2% earlier in the session. The benchmark has come under pressure as authorities in the Chinese city of Shanghai announced a two-phase lockdown despite earlier assurances to the contrary, raising worry re: slower economic growth for ’22, with downside economic risks set to grow if more Chinese cities adopt similar measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. Steep losses were observed in the consumer staples sub-index, while energy and utilities outperformed.
• The Nikkei sits 0.5% lower at typing after opening lower, on track to end a nine-session streak of gains. The move lower comes despite a weakening in the JPY, with the impulse from a weaker currency failing to counter heavy losses observed in materials and industrial names.
• U.S. e-mini equity index futures sit 0.3% weaker across the board at typing.

• RES 4: 124.81 3.00projection of the Dec 3 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 124.63 High Aug 13 2015
• RES 2: 123.76 High Nov 18 2015
• RES 1: 123.37 2.618 projection of the Dec 3 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing
• PRICE: 123.01 @ 05:46 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 121.97 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 120.95/120.00 Low Mar 24 / Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.04 Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: 118.55 20-day EMA

USDJPY has started the week on a firm note and traded to a fresh trend high, confirming a resumption of its uptrend. Current momentum suggests the USD still has the potential to extend this bull cycle, although it is worth noting that the pair is extremely overbought on the daily frequency. Upside targets shift higher to 123.76, the Nov 18 2015 high ahead of 124.63, the Aug 13 2015 high. Last Thursday’s low of 120.95 is seen as a firm near-term support.