Price Signal Summary - Cable Cracks Support To Resume In Primary Downtrend
Apr-22 09:58
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis failed to hold on to Thursday’s gains and reversed lower. This once again highlights the current bearish threat and attention is on support and the bear trigger, at 4355.50, the Apr 18 low. A break would open 4321.07, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Thursday, however, the contract has failed to hold onto this week’s highs. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and bear trigger. For bulls, a break above yesterday’s high of 3883.00 would open the 3944.00 key resistance point - the Mar 29 high.
- In FX, EURUSD traded higher Thursday but failed to hold on to its gains. A break of 1.0936, yesterday’s high, is needed to signal scope for a continuation higher, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1018. The bear trigger is unchanged at 1.0758, the Apr 14 low. The broader trend direction remains down. GBPUSD is under pressure this morning as it continues to slide. The break of former support at 1.2974, Apr 13 low, confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend. This has opened 1.2855, the Nov 2 2020 low and 1.2830, 50.0% of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend. USDJPY is unchanged and trend conditions remain bullish. This is despite the extreme overbought condition. The focus is on 129.44 next, 0.764 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. Sights are also set on the psychological 130.00 handle.
- On the commodity front, Gold remains below Monday’s high of $1998.4. The pullback from this level has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1927.5. A break of this EMA would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and expose $1890.2, the Mar 29 low and the key support. In the Oil space, WTI futures maintain a bullish tone despite this week’s retracement. Further gains would open $113.51, the Mar 24 high. Initial resistance is at $109.20, Apr 18 high. The support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $97.62.
- The trend condition in the FI space remains bearish. Bund futures have delivered another fresh cycle low. The focus is on 153.00 next. Gilts have also traded to a fresh cycle low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 117.04, 0.764 projection of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing.
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RUSSIA: Kremlin-Polish Plan For NATO Peacekeepers Would Be 'Reckless, Dangerous'
Mar-23 09:57
Comments from the Kremlin hitting wires:
- Kremlin: Military operation in Ukraine is proceeding as planned.
- Kremlin: Polish idea of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine would be very reckless and extremely dangerous.
- Kremlin: Any possible contact of our forces with NATO's could lead to consequences that would be hard to correct.
- Kremlin: US is exerting pressure on other countries regarding Russian membership of G20. Some countries in G20 are holding to their own sovereign positions despite US pressure.
Russian rhetoric surrounding potential for Russia-NATO conflict, and indeed nuclear warfare, has ramped up significantly in last 24hrs, just as major summits of NATO, G7, and EU set to get underway in Brussels with leaders of US, EU members, UK, Canada, Japan and in attendance.
UK: House Of Commons Timeline, Spring Statement In Focus
Mar-23 09:50
Political and market focus in the UK today trained on the House of Commons, where Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will deliver the 'spring statement' (a mini-budget) later today. Below we outline the approximate timings.
- Prime Ministers' Questions - 1200GMT (0800ET, 1300CET, 2100JST) - Boris Johnson - PMQs before major fiscal statements are usually a fairly formulaic affair, with little in the way of concrete announcements, MPs focus on the main event.
- Spring Statement - 1230GMT (0830ET, 1330CET, 2130JST) - Rishi Sunak - Chancellor delivers the spring statement directly after PMQs, could be delayed by a few mins if PMQs is allowed to drag on. MNI will have live coverage of major political announcements and market-relevant information from Sunak's statement on the bullet feed.
- Opposition Response - 1330GMT (approx.) (0930ET, 1430CET, 2230JST) - Rachel Reeves - Shadow Chancellor delivers opposition response to the spring statement. Time approx as response depends on how long Sunak's address lasts.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Mar23 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Mar-23 09:42
- EUR/USD: $1.0850(E621mln), $1.1065-80(E1.1bln)
- EUR/JPY: Y130.50(E815mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.2630-50($1.3bln)
