RBC: Libya & Kazakh Disruptions Work In Russia’s Favour As Iran Deal Stalls

RBC note that “the latest round of unrest in Libya’s restive oil region is further exacerbating the precarious global supply picture as Western nations debate ratcheting up sanctions on the Russian energy sector and as other key producers experience shuts-ins. The question is whether these disruptions are simply a series of isolated events or whether there is a degree of external influence involved.”

• “Libya’s oil output has plunged again due to another round of destabilizing unrest in Libya’s restive eastern oil region. At the time of writing, around 550 kb/d of Libyan production is offline, with the national oil company’s list of force majeure declarations growing by the day following protests at multiple oil fields and export facilities.”
• “While such turbulence in Libya is hardly new, we would point out that Moscow is the principal patron of General Khalifa Haftar, the powerful eastern militia leader who attempted to seize power in Tripoli in 2019 with the help of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group.”
• “We will continue to watch Russian ties to key oil producing nations over the coming months for indications that it is using its influence to impact supply. Kazakhstan has also recently experienced a significant shortfall with the disruption of flows through the 1.2 mb/d Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).”
• “Certainly, Russia’s 11th hour demand in March for a specific sanctions carve out halted the forward progress in the Iranian nuclear negotiations.”
• “As we noted since the dawn of the OPEC+ partnership in November 2016, Russia has used its seat at the top of the back-producer group table to expand its global strategic footprint forging ties with a number of countries that had been Cold War adversaries.”