According to Real Clear Politics, the Republican Party now has a lead of 2.6% on the generic Congressional ballot. A lead similar to one maintained by the GOP before the Supreme Court decision in June to overturn Roe v Wade prompted a shift in the political environment in favour of Democrats.

• The generic Congressional ballot asks poll respondees to make a binary choice between Democrat and Republican candidate.
• According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrat chances of maintaining control of the House of Representatives has now dipped below 20%.

Figure 1: Generic Congressional Ballot (RealClearPolitics)

Figure 2: Chances of Controlling the House, Over Time % (FiveThirtyEight)