FOMC Statement
Federal Funds Rate Range Maximum
Forecast
3.75Actual
3.75Date:
2026 Jun 17 - 6:00pmDescription
The FOMC Meeting with the US Federal Reserve Board (Fed).Preview Coverage
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Inter_Meeting_Fed_Speak_Jun2026_5efe70d02a.pdf Ahead of next week's Fed decision, we've published our summary of FOMC participant communications since the April FOMC meeting, including MNI's Hawk-Dove Matrix and a recap of the latest Beige Book and meeting minutes.
Jun-11 17:56Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jun2026_W_Analysts_555abd1e77.pdf This update of our June 12th Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 45 June 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: Hanging On To Cut Expectations All analysts (among 39 previews seen by MNI) expect the FOMC to hold the Fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% at its June meeting, with broad consensus over the removal of the Statement easing bias; the 2026 "Dot" in the SEP; and the direction of travel for macro projections. However, there is significant intrigue over Chair Warsh's first press conference, and the longer-dated Dots. * Statement: It's unanimously agreed that the Statement's easing bias ("in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments") will be altered to make the outlook more neutral/two-sided. There doesn't seem to be much conviction on exactly how it will be changed, with some seeing the removal of "the extent and timing of additional" for example, while some see a more radical change, including NatWest which sees the elimination of forward guidance altogether with the Statement as a whole pared down drastically. Analysts do not expect any dissents, while there is some anticipation that the language assessing the labor market ("Job gains have remained low") could be upgraded. * SEP/Dot Plot: While it's firm consensus that the median Dot Plot participant will remove their 2026 rate cut (for a year-end 3.6% rate), it's more mixed going over the forecast horizon. We'd say consensus is split between those who expect the median Dot to show a hold through 2027, and those who expect one cut. We note some expectations (Deutsche, Nomura) for a higher longer-run dot median (3.25%), helping inform a higher 2028 rate (3.4%, vs most expectations of 3.1%). * In the economic projections, the most closely-watched aspect is core PCE. This is expected to be increased significantly for 2026 from the existing 2.7% to the low 3.0s area (analysts see anywhere from 2.9% to 3.3%, with a rough 3.2% consensus). 2026 GDP and Unemployment are seen edging slightly lower but outer years largely unchanged. * Future action: There is consensus among analysts that the Fed has a bit further to go on cuts, though a few see the easing cycle as having already concluded. Compared with the previews we saw going into the last meeting in April meeting, the median analyst's outlook for total further cuts has not changed from 50bp. However, the timeline has clearly been pushed back with most analysts not seeing cuts restarting until 2027, vs the previous consensus that there would be 25bp cuts in September and December 2026. The big outlier here is BNP Paribas's forecast for 75bp of hikes starting at end-2026, the only analyst whose Fed preview we saw that has tightening as a base case for the next move.
Jun-15 19:54Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jun2026_a6eb8bf4fe.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * At Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC will unanimously maintain the Fed funds rate range at 3.50-3.75% for a 4th consecutive meeting, while also making a meaningful pivot on the policy stance. * The Statement's outright bias toward future policy easing (which has been in place since January 2024) will be removed in favor of more two-sided forward guidance, or more likely, no guidance at all. * The SEP will also substantially raise forecasts for end-2026 inflation, a shift accompanied with a Dot Plot that shows no cuts by end-year, with more would-be hikers than cutters. There is a good chance the median participant will see no easing through 2027. * The press conference will be one of the most anticipated in years, with Warsh potentially laying out his reform agenda. * While the new Chair may portray a more dovish outlook on inflation than the median FOMC member, those looking for a clear steer on upcoming rate decisions are very likely to be disappointed given his disdain for forward guidance. MNI's separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Jun 15
Jun-12 20:09Review Coverage
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Review_Jun2026_c90d2a2d78.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: June's FOMC meeting was expected to deliver a hawkish hold, with the removal of the Statement's easing bias, an increasing number of participants eyeing rate hikes by year-end but a largely neutral outlook on policy, and new Chair Warsh repudiating forward guidance and laying out a framework of reforms in the months ahead. We got the rate hold at 3.50-3.75%, but the rest was at the hawkish extreme of the consensus scenario in almost every respect. It saw pricing for a 25bp rate hike pulled forward to October from early 2027 previously, and a new peak implied rate of 4.13% (up 19bp on the day) as Committee support for a future easing now appears all but dead. * In the Dot Plot, half of the Fed funds Dots (9 members) eyed hikes by year-end (with 6 seeing multiple hikes) and just 1 saw a cut, with the median surprisingly rising from a hold at 3.625% (analysts had been unanimous on this) to a half-hike at 3.75%. * The FOMC Statement was completely revamped and truncated, with a seeming emphasis on inflation fighting ("The Committee will deliver price stability"), and of course, no reference to forward guidance thus ending the long-standing easing bias. * And the economic projections also included surprisingly robust medium-term underlying inflation expectations, with the core PCE median seen at 3.3% in 2026 Q4/Q4 vs 2.7% in March's edition, but surprisingly, 2027 also upped significantly to 2.5% from 2.2%. * The Statement changes had Warsh's fingerprints all over them - he has advocated an end to forward guidance and less, not more, verbose communications. He said in the opening of his press conference that "It's a bit shorter, a bit simpler-and it dispenses with some older language. That statement just gives you the facts, as best we can judge it. Absent, also, is so-called "forward guidance," which we agreed was not well-suited to the current policy conjuncture." * His fingerprints were not found on the SEP / Dot Plot, however - "It's been the practice of this committee for participants to submit [projections]. I have encouraged my colleagues to do so. I, however, refrained from offering any projections of my own, consistent with my long-held views on the SEP, at least as currently structured." * That raised the question, where would Warsh's dot have been if he had submitted? On the evidence of the press conference, it didn't sound like he was an advocate of the next move being a cut, to say the least. Most of the content was very much hawkish, in contrast to some expectations that he would hew to a more dovish view than the median of the FOMC even if he didn't express an outright directional view on policy. See PDF report for: * MNI View * Market Reaction * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * FOMC Meeting Links * Summary of Economic Projections Changes * Policy Statement Changes * MNI Policy - Fed Watch
Jun-17 20:39MNI examines the outlook for Fed policy following Warsh's first meeting as chair.
Jun-17 19:22Instant answers
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