MNI Fed Preview - June 2026: Analyst Outlook

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This update of our June 12th Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 45

June 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: Hanging On To Cut Expectations

All analysts (among 39 previews seen by MNI) expect the FOMC to hold the Fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% at its June meeting, with broad consensus over the removal of the Statement easing bias; the 2026 “Dot” in the SEP; and the direction of travel for macro projections. However, there is significant intrigue over Chair Warsh’s first press conference, and the longer-dated Dots.

• Statement: It’s unanimously agreed that the Statement’s easing bias (“in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments”) will be altered to make the outlook more neutral/two-sided. There doesn’t seem to be much conviction on exactly how it will be changed, with some seeing the removal of “the extent and timing of additional” for example, while some see a more radical change, including NatWest which sees the elimination of forward guidance altogether with the Statement as a whole pared down drastically. Analysts do not expect any dissents, while there is some anticipation that the language assessing the labor market (“Job gains have remained low") could be upgraded.
• SEP/Dot Plot: While it’s firm consensus that the median Dot Plot participant will remove their 2026 rate cut (for a year-end 3.6% rate), it’s more mixed going over the forecast horizon. We’d say consensus is split between those who expect the median Dot to show a hold through 2027, and those who expect one cut. We note some expectations (Deutsche, Nomura) for a higher longer-run dot median (3.25%), helping inform a higher 2028 rate (3.4%, vs most expectations of 3.1%).
• In the economic projections, the most closely-watched aspect is core PCE. This is expected to be increased significantly for 2026 from the existing 2.7% to the low 3.0s area (analysts see anywhere from 2.9% to 3.3%, with a rough 3.2% consensus). 2026 GDP and Unemployment are seen edging slightly lower but outer years largely unchanged.
• Future action: There is consensus among analysts that the Fed has a bit further to go on cuts, though a few see the easing cycle as having already concluded. Compared with the previews we saw going into the last meeting in April meeting, the median analyst’s outlook for total further cuts has not changed from 50bp. However, the timeline has clearly been pushed back with most analysts not seeing cuts restarting until 2027, vs the previous consensus that there would be 25bp cuts in September and December 2026. The big outlier here is BNP Paribas’s forecast for 75bp of hikes starting at end-2026, the only analyst whose Fed preview we saw that has tightening as a base case for the next move.