MNI Fed Preview-June 2026: Warsh Arrives At A More Neutral Fed

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• At Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC will unanimously maintain the Fed funds rate range at 3.50-3.75% for a 4th consecutive meeting, while also making a meaningful pivot on the policy stance.
• The Statement's outright bias toward future policy easing (which has been in place since January 2024) will be removed in favor of more two-sided forward guidance, or more likely, no guidance at all.
• The SEP will also substantially raise forecasts for end-2026 inflation, a shift accompanied with a Dot Plot that shows no cuts by end-year, with more would-be hikers than cutters. There is a good chance the median participant will see no easing through 2027.
• The press conference will be one of the most anticipated in years, with Warsh potentially laying out his reform agenda.
• While the new Chair may portray a more dovish outlook on inflation than the median FOMC member, those looking for a clear steer on upcoming rate decisions are very likely to be disappointed given his disdain for forward guidance. 

MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Jun 15