Bank of Canada Policy Decision

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Review_Jun2026_2f7127c584.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bank of Canada's June meeting brought a very much expected overnight rate hold at 2.25% and resulted in only a slight implied change in hike expectations. The press conference concluded with about 26bp of 2026 tightening priced vs about 28bp pre-decision, although at least some of the overall dovish tone stemmed from a US CPI report earlier in the day that was slightly on the softer side of expectations. In short, the Bank didn't deliver any major surprises, and indeed retained a messaging and overall tone that was similar from the prior decision in April. * The major risks remained the same - namely, a possible US trade shock to growth, and potential broadening and persistence of inflation from the Mideast war energy shock - and the overall tilt was toward tightening but not unduly so. Indeed Governing Council looks to retain the flexibility to either cut or hike as its next move, and does not seem in a hurry to commit. * Even the removal of the April statement's reference to the current policy rate being "about right" if oil prices moderate in coming months was downplayed in the press conference, leaving the overall guidance intact: "consecutive" hikes if inflation broadens, or a possible easing if US trade relations deteriorate meaningfully. * As MNI noted in our meeting preview, "Mixed activity data and an uncertain near-term geopolitical outlook make it likely that the BOC will also likely leave its message from the last meeting in April largely intact: potential upside in rates is greater than the downside at this juncture, but maintaining policy is still the "right thing to do for today" as uncertainty over trade and energy prices looms large." * Should the BOC look to decide upon a more decisive message, the most logical timing would be July's meeting (July 15 decision) at which point it will have another round of business surveys and monthly data upon which to base its conclusions, and of course potentially less uncertainty over external risks. But at the current juncture, even that looks to be too early for such a shift. For now, the upside inflation/downside growth dilemma remains. * Accordingly, analysts did not change their outlooks for BOC policy following June's meeting, with the overwhelming consensus being that there will be a hold through 2026 followed by 50bp in hikes in 2027, a path slightly less aggressive than portrayed by OIS markets. See PDF report for: * MNI View * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * BOC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes

Governor Tiff Macklem says Middle East drag has increased, US trade policy remains volatile.