By Tim Cooper MNI (NEW YORK) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Surprises at the September
FOMC were actually relatively limited outside of the decision itself, which went
in favor of a 50bp cut to 4.75-5.00% instead of a 25bp cut - and even then,
either outcome was priced at roughly 50/50 going into 2pm ET. * If anything the
limited surprises in the communications leaned marginally hawkish to us versus
what might have been expected in the context of an outsized rate cut to start
the easing cycle, from Powell's caginess over the cadence of future cuts in the
press conference, to some subtleties in the Dot Plot. * We think this
interpretation is borne out by the market reaction, which went from very dovish
on the semi-surprise cut size at the time of release, to reversing much of the
initial move by the end of the press conference. FOR FULL ANALYSIS INCLUDING
PRESS CONFERENCE TRANSCRIPT: FedReviewSep2024.pdf:
https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Review_Sep2024_5c4f95d354.pdf
Sep-18 20:57
