AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z6) Correction Still In Play

• MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN AUG +$199.8B
• US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN AUG +$279.2B

• RES 4: 1.4432 2.000 proj of the Jan 30 - Mar 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 01 ‘25
• RES 2: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Jan 30 - Mar 31 - May 1 price swing  
• RES 1: 1.4300 High Oct 14
• PRICE: 1.4147 @ 16:26 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 1.4134 Low Oct 16
• SUP 2: 1.4073 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3974 Low Sep 17 
• SUP 4: 1.3715 Low Sep 16

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, support around the 20-day EMA, at 1.4168, has been breached. This signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term towards 1.4073, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.4300, the Oct 14 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.4328 next, a Fibonacci projection. 

• RES 4: 0.7238 High Sep 09 and a S/T bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7140 High Sep 21
• RES 2: 0.7041 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.7013 High Oct 14 
• PRICE: 0.6959 @ 16:21 BST Oct 16
• SUP 1: 0.6894 Low Oct 15
• SUP 2: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and a key M/T support
• SUP 3: 0.6849 50.0% 2025 - 2026 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6833 Low Mar 30  

A downtrend in AUDUSD remains intact and Thursday’s bear leg reinforces the bearish theme. The sell-off resulted in a move through support at 0.6904, the Oct 1 low. This highlights a resumption of the bear leg that started on Sep 9 and paves the way for an extension towards 0.6865, the Jun 30 low and an important medium-term support. Key short-term resistance is at 0.7041, the 50-day EMA.