BTP TECHS: (Z5) Trend Theme Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.03/69.36 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $64.38 @ 07:19 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible recent reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low.

Swedish labour market trends remain subdued, providing one argument to deliver a rate cut as soon as next week’s meeting. However, Riksbank officials (Thedéen and Jansson) have not provided markets any clear steer in recent comments, suggesting current pricing that leans in favour of a hold is appropriate. 

• In August, the seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment rate was 8.8%, slightly above the 5-analyst strong consensus of 8.7%. July’s reading was revised down a tenth on a rounded basis to 8.8%. The 3mma of the LFS unemployment rate continues to track above the Riksbank’s June MPR projections.
• Employment actually rose 0.5% M/M after -0.4% in July, but 3m/3m employment growth has been -0.3% for two consecutive months now. The 3mma employment rate is below the Riksbank’s June projection.
• With employment rising on a sequential basis, the unemployment rate was only steady because of a 0.3pp rise in labour force participation to 75.6%. The 3mma participation rate was steady at 75.4%.
• A reminder that the LFS data can be quite volatile month-to-month.
• Looking ahead, the Economic Tendency Indicator’s expected employees series remains close to year-to-date lows.

• RES 4: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: $3744.2 - 1.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: $3705.2 - 1.382 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: $3703.1 - High Sep 16             
• PRICE: $3677.8 @ 07:24 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: $3614.0 - Low Sep 11  
• SUP 2: $3547.7 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3449.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and the yellow metal is trading at its recent highs. A fresh all-time high, once again this week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3705.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3547.7, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.