BTP TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $67.62 @ 07:01 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures are unchanged and remain above their recent lows. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 120.26 @ Close Sep 15
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low. 

First glance labour market data broadly in line with expectations:

• Private regular pay 4.66% vs 4.65% prior on a 3-month basis. The single month at 4.51% with only a minor 0.03ppt downward revision to the June single month print.
• Unemployment rate still rounds to 4.7% (as expected by the vast majority).
• PAYE payrolls marginally better at -7.7k vs -15k expected and the 3-month LFS employment rate broadly in line with 220k consensus (at 232k). Overall PAYE payrolls revisions are small (relative to normal).
• There was a revision lower to the claimant count in July (will look into that in more detail - but the rate remains at 4.4% in line with expectations and that series has been clouded a bit by changes to eligibility over the past couple of years.
• GBPUSD moved 10 pips higher on the release on the marginally better quantities numberse - but the impact for the MPC here is likely to marginal.
• The one takeaway which is slightly dovish for us is that the market was looking for private regular pay to come in at a lower-than-consistent level with the BOE's Q3 forecast. So it looks as though we are tracking a slightly weaker labour market than the BOE expects.