BRAZIL: XP Investments Say High Bar For Further BCB Hikes
Jun-20 12:20
- Valor International has published an interview with the chief economist at XP Investimentos, where they have noted this week’s Copom decision and statement sets a “high bar” for any further Selic hikes in this cycle. XP believes further tightening would require a marked acceleration in inflation or economic activity, something they see as unlikely.
- The decision was praised, as it should help curb market pricing of an early monetary easing cycle, adding that the hawkish tone could also help dispel doubts about the credibility of Copom’s current composition.
- Looking ahead, XP note there are two important events before the next Copom meeting. The first is the Monetary Policy Report, when the BCB typically revise estimates for the output gap and the neutral interest rate. But the more important event is the letter explaining why it missed the inflation target.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BONDS: Monday's Highs In 30-Year Tsy Yields Holds
May-21 12:08
The earlier cross-market moves (USD, bond and equity weakness) have moderated from extremes seen in early NY trade, with Monday’s high in 30-Year Tsy yields (3.0353%) holding and seemingly providing the key to broader stabilisation in USD assets.
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
May-21 12:04
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.27% (-0.02), volume: $2.554T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.26% (-0.02), volume: $1.060T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.26% (-0.02), volume: $1.023T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: 10Y Call Plays
May-21 12:00
Option desks report decent volumes in 10Y call plays ahead of the NY open, SOFR puts on lighter volume so far. Underlying futures weaker, near overnight lows, curves bear steepening. Projected rate cut pricing cooling from late Tuesday levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 at -0.5bp (-1.3bp), Jul'25 at -6.7bp (-7.5bp), Sep'25 at -19.6bp (-21.5bp), Oct'25 at -33.7bp (-35.5bp), Dec'25 at -50.7bp (-52.9bp).
- Treasury Options:
- 20,000 TYM5 110.5/111 call spds, 2 ref 109-29
- over 3,300 USN5 109 puts, 50 ref 111-19
- +8,000 TYM5 111/112/113 call flys, 1.0
- (another 3k TYM5 112 calls, 1 ref 109-30)
- +5,000 TYM5 109.5 puts, 6
- +3,000 TYU5 107.5 puts, 41-42
- +3,000 FVM5 108 calls, 2
- SOFR Options:
- 1,900 SFRM5 95.68/95.75/95.81 call flys ref 95.68
- 2,600 SFRM5 95.75/95.87 2x1 put spds ref 95.68
- +6,000 SFRM5 95.68 puts, 2.5
- 2,000 SFRM5 95.75 put vs. 0QN5 96.12 put, 0.5 net flattener
- +1,000 SFRM5 95.50/95.68 2x1 put spds cab
- +5,000 0QM5 96.12 puts, 1.0 vs. 96.575 to -.58/0.05%
- -2,000 2QN5 96.43 puts, 14.5 vs. 96.50/0.44%
