INTERNATIONAL TRADE: Vietnam Exports To EU Growing Swiftly But Still Small [2/2]
May-09 15:51
- Data released earlier this week showed Vietnam exports to the EU were continuing to increase strongly in April, with our simple proxy of trade to Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands seeing exports rise 13% Y/Y in April or 17% Y/Y 3mma.
- This supports scope for broader disinflationary pressures although it’s to a much smaller magnitude than in the case of China. Vietnam exports for those main five EU countries are worth around $3bn per month compared to circa $25bn from China (which scales up closer to more than $40bn for the EU as a whole).
- As alluded to in part one, the top right chart shows Vietnam still appears very much linked to China-US trade rather than China-EU trade at this stage as a result of historical US trade policy.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Trendline Support
Apr-09 15:51
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-09+ 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-21+ 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: 112-08 High Apr 7
- PRICE: 110-26+ @ 15:50 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: 110-01 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 109-29 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
- SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
A sharp sell-off in Treasury futures this week has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention is on trendline support at 109-29, drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this support would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that the steep sell-off could still be a corrective pullback that has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 112-08, yesterday’s high. A break would highlight a possible early reversal.
US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: Off Lows Despite Retaliatory Tariff Volley
Apr-09 15:40
- Stocks have see-sawed off early overnight lows ahead midday despite China (84%) and the EU (E21B) announcing retaliatory tariffs against the US Wednesday morning. Currently, the DJIA trades down 3.06 points (-0.01%) at 37632.5, S&P E-Minis down 0.25 points (-0.01%) at 5020.25, Nasdaq up 126.9 points (0.8%) at 15391.6.
- Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors outperformed in the first half, hardware and semiconductor makers buoyed the tech sector: Advanced Micro Devices +5.28%, Intel Corp +4.69%, Apple +3.90%, Skyworks Solutions +3.68% and Teradyne +3.05%.
- The Consumer Discretionary sector was supported by: Tesla +3.51%, Wynn Resorts +2.81%, Expedia Group +1.87%, Chipotle Mexican Grill +1.78% and MGM Resorts International +1.61%
- On the flipside, Utilities and Health Care sectors underperformed, alternative energy providers weighing on the former: Entergy Corp -3.52%, Evergy -3.32%, NiSource -2.91%, Duke Energy -2.72% and NextEra Energy -2.71%.
- Meanwhile, pharmaceuticals weighed on the Health Care sector: Bristol-Myers Squibb -5.73%, AbbVie -5.68%, Incyte Corp -4.88%, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals -4.77% and Eli Lilly -4.53%.
- Reminder, banks kick off the latest earnings cycle this Friday with Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo & Co, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley reporting.
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 3.28%)
Apr-09 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 3.28%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 43.15% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 4.04% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 52.81% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.71
