SWEDEN: Vacancy To Unemployment Claims Ratio Posts Fresh Cycle Low
The Swedish unemployment claims rate (from the Public Employment Service) was steady at 7.0% for the fourth consecutive month in February. However, a renewed fall in vacancies (90.3k vs 98.2k prior; -21% Y/Y) signals labour market conditions are still loosening somewhat. The vacancy-to-unemployment-claims ratio fell to 0.25 (vs 0.27 prior), the lowest since May 2021.
- While the Riksbank are firmly expected to remain on hold next Thursday on the back of increased inflationary pressures, Governor Thedeen noted at yesterday’s Parliamentary Hearing that activity signals at the start of 2025 have been mixed. The labour market remains a weak point, keeping focus on Friday’s LFS data. The LFS unemployment rate is expected to pull back from January’s spike to 9.7% (cons 8.9%).
- 4,700 workers were served redundancy notices in February. That’s below January’s 5,100, but the 3mma ticked up to 5,169 (vs 5,111).
- Note, the unemployment rate quoted above includes people in job support programmes. The figure quoted on the Bloomberg calendar only includes unemployment claimants (i.e. excluding those in support programmes).
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GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $2917.5 - 1.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2900.0 - Round number resistance
- PRICE: $2894.7 @ 07:31 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: $2834.3 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 2: $2776.3 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2754.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2716.9 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2900.0 handle next. The first key support to watch is $2776.3, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Key Support
- RES 4: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 3: 161.40 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 160.50 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 157.97/158.86 Low Feb 3 / High Feb 6
- PRICE: 156.79 @ 07:20 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: 155.61 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 155.19/15 3.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains present and last week’s move down reinforces current conditions. The cross cleared 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, and pierced 156.18, the Dec 3 low and key support. A continuation lower would open 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.40, the 50-day EMA. The short-term trend is oversold, gains would allow this condition to unwind.
EGBS: J.P.Morgan Recommend Long 30-Year OLOs Vs. OATs
J.P.Morgan recommend long 30-Year OLOs vs. OATs.
- They look for a 30-Year OLO syndication this week and expect the recent run of long end post-syndication performance to continue.
