FOREX: USDJPY Consolidates Weekly Advance Ahead of Japan UH Election

• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.235%(ALLOT 15.23%)
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 26.62% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.40% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 67.97% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.88

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.1504 @ 15:50 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 1.1425 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1286/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

The trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of 1.1573, the Apr 21 high. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.1696, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.1425, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1286. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.      

• Analysts on balance appear to see modest CHF strength as the relatively most likely outcome for FX markets for tomorrow's SNB meeting - but views are not unanimous:
• * Barclays: "Modest hawkish risks into the meeting, with the market having likely flipped short the franc in recent weeks."
• * Goldman Sachs: "We expect global drivers to be more important for the direction of CHF in the near term than domestic policy and think CHF should remain supported even in a backdrop of negative rates."
• * JP Morgan: "While CHF has usually weakened on days of dovish surprises in this cycle, there was only continued follow-through in the days and months after in two out of five instances (Jun, Dec’24). We do not think an ultimate landing zone in negative territory would be much of a headwind to franc strength if global/regional growth forces are in its favour."
• * Nomura: "We have been recommending long EUR/CHF, targeting 0.9650, since mid-May, because of the view that the SNB is more likely than not to deliver policy actions to alleviate Swiss deflationary risks and CHF appreciation."
• * UniCredit: "CHF is likely to weaken across the board, although a scenario of negative interest rates in Switzerland is already priced into forward rates."