CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Edges Down, Error Term Narrowest Since March

The USD/CNH fix printed at 7.1782, versus a BBG market consensus of 7.2644.

• The fix was set higher than Friday's outcome (7.1752). It remains within recent ranges though (March 25 recorded a 7.1788 fixing).
• The fixing error was little changed at -862pips.
• USD/CNH has drifted lower in the first part of Monday dealings, the pair last near 7.2630/35. Broader USD indices are weaker, led by yen gains, as markets see risk off amid US tariff/growth fears. 

• CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1782 MON VS 7.1752

Early G10 FX trends are skewed to risk off. Yen is outperforming up 0.35%, although away from best levels, CHF is +0.20% higher. The USD BBDXY index is down 0.15% to 1270. Risk appetite is being weighed by negative spillover from further downside in US equity futures, led by tech (Nasdaq futures down -1.2%, Eminis off 0.70%). We are away from session lows for these futures. Regional equities are also off, led by Japan. US Tsy futures are higher (cash Tsy yields 4-5bps lower) 

• Weekend news flow reported fresh US/Russia tensions around a lack of a Ukraine ceasefire, while threats of a strike against Iran also made headlines. Trump has also stated reciprocal tariffs will apply to all countries (which are set to be announced on Wednesday).
• USD/JPY got to a low of 149.07, but sits higher now, last at 149.30. Earlier data showed m/m retail sales and IP stronger than expected, but y/y estimates disappointed.  
• NZD/USD has challenged support around the 0.5700 level (session lows at 0.5694), but there has been a clean break lower. The ANZ business survey showed a gradual recovery is still in play, but that costs/pricing pressures are rising again.
• AUD/USD is outperforming the NZD at this stage, the pair little changed near 0.6285/90. The AUD/NZD cross is holding near 1.1020 in latest dealings.
• EUR/USD has ticked higher, last close to 1.0845 (up 0.15%).
• Coming up we have official China PMIs for March, but FX sentiment is likely to be dictated by broader risk shifts in the near term.