LOOK AHEAD: US Macro Week Ahead: CPI/PPI Reports

• Treasuries look to settle modestly lower - inside the session range after some early headline and data driven volatility Wednesday.
• Treasuries extended early lows after Trump social media post threatening Iran for taking too long to negotiate. Around midday, Trump added the "US will resume attacking Iran 'very hard'". Incidentally, Israeli official Katz said the "IDF poised to strike Iran with great force."
• Treasuries bounce to early session highs after May CPI data: TYU6 109-12 then retreat, the Sep contract trades 109-05 last (-2). Initial technical support at 108-25 (Low Jun 08) followed by 108-08.5 (Low May 19 and the bear trigger). 10Y yield at 4.5244% (+.0080).
• On the soft side was yet another weak core goods print (-0.11% vs +0.1% MNI Median) with medical commodities dragging; core services basically in line (0.29% vs 0.27% MNI median) with OER/rents not quite pulling back as much as expected from April's somewhat artificial rise; lodging/airfares/medical services on high-ish side with auto insurance soft.
• Crude oil extended gains after President Trump said that the US “will be attacking Iran hard today.” This followed earlier comments from Trump that Iran had taken too long to negotiate a deal and would “pay the price”.
• The ECB is fully expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike on Thursday, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%, having been on hold since the end of its easing cycle back in June 2025.

• RES 4: 0.7278 May 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 2: 7201 High May 29 
• RES 1: 0.7129 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7021 @ 17:12 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 0.6998 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 0.6986 Low Apr 13 
• SUP 3: 0.6938 76.4% retracement of the Mar 30 - May 6 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 0.6899 Low Apr 7 

A short-term bear cycle in AUDUSD remains in play. The pair has recently cleared the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.7118. The break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 0.6986, the Apr 13 low. Note that the bear cycle that started Jun 5 could still be a correction. MOving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.7201, the May 29 high.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 06/11 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (225k, 220k)
• 06/11 0830 Continuing Claims (1.777M, 1.785M)
• 06/11 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (1.4%, 0.7%), YoY (6.0%, 6.4%)
• 06/11 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (1.0%, 0.5%), YoY (5.2%, 5.4%)
• 06/11 1130 US Tsy $70B 4W & $70B 8W bill
• 06/11 1300 US Tsy $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810UU0)
• 06/11 1200 Household Change in Net Worth
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI