LOOK AHEAD: US Data: GDP Annual Revisions and PCE

• Treasuries look to finish modestly higher Wednesday, off midday highs after slightly mixed messaging from the July FOMC minutes regarding the inflation outlook, labor market, and ultimately policy.
• Tsy Sep'25 10Y contract trades +4 at 111-28.5 after the bell vs. 112-00.5 high, Initial technical support well below at 111-11 (50-day EMA); resistance above at 112-15.5 (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger). Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.699 at 53.911, 5s30s +.196 at 108.438.
• A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced. "Almost all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%".
• Limited data: MBA composite mortgage applications edged -1.4% (sa) lower last week to hold onto most of its refi-driven 11% increase the week prior. Indeed, new purchase applications increased 0.1% after 1.4% whilst refis dipped -3.1% after 23.0%.
• DJIA index staged a late session rebound while Nasdaq traded weaker - weighed by chip stocks amid reports the Trump admin "may seek equity in any such firms awarded federal grants under the Biden-era CHIPS Act."
• The Greenback see-sawed lower (BBDXY -.35 at 1206.64) adopting a more neutral position headed into Friday's Jackson Hole appearance from Chair Powell.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 08/21 0730 Atl Fed Bostic brief remarks on economy (no text, no Q&A)
• 08/21 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (224k, 226k)
• 08/21 0830 Continuing Claims (1.953M, 1.960M)
• 08/21 0830 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (15.9, 6.5)
• 08/21 0945 S&P Global US Mfg PMI (49.8, 49.7)
• 08/21 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (55.7, 54.2)
• 08/21 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (55.1, 53.5)
• 08/21 1000 Leading Index (-0.3%, 0.1%)
• 08/21 1000 Existing Home Sales (3.93M, 3.92M), MoM (-2.7%, -0.3%)
• 08/21 1130 US Tsy $100B 4W & $85B 8W bill auctions
• 08/21 1300 US Tsy $8B 30Y TIPS reopen
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6500 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6435 @ 16:20 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is off its most recent highs to trade lower Wednesday. From a trend perspective, the condition remains bullish highlighted by MA studies that remain in a bull-mode position. However, the pair is approaching support at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would expose support at 0.6373, Jun 23 low and an important support. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6625, the Aug 24 high.