BOBL TECHS: (U5) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
Aug-28 05:20
- RES 4: 18.030 High Jul 22 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 117.710 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 117.610 High Aug 27
- PRICE: 117.600 @ 05:58 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 117.250/116.950 Low Aug 26 / 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.840 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)
Bobl futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract traded higher yesterday. Price has moved through resistance at the 50-day EMA at 117.474. The clear break undermines the recent bearish threat and instead signals scope for a climb towards the next important short-term resistance at 117.710, the Aug 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 116.950, the Aug 15 low.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jul-29 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 29-Jul | 0800 | ES | GDP (p) |
| 29-Jul | 0900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 30-Jul | 0630 | FR | GDP (p) / Consumer spending |
| 30-Jul | 0700 | DE | Retail Sales |
| 30-Jul | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) |
| 30-Jul | 0900 | DE | GDP (p) |
| 30-Jul | 0900 | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30-Jul | 0900 | EU | ECB Wage Tracker |
| 30-Jul | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 31-Jul | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 31-Jul | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) / PPI |
| 31-Jul | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 31-Jul | 0900 | DE | State-level Inflation Data |
| 31-Jul | 1000 | EU | Unemployment |
| 31-Jul | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 31-Jul | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 31-Jul | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
CHINA: Country Wrap: Manufacturing Trade with Europe Growing
Jul-29 05:15
- China's manufacturing hub enhances economic and trade exchanges with Europe as the growing popularity of products from Guangdong in Europe is underpinned by strengthening China-Europe ties, a well-developed international logistics network, and increasingly diversified economic and trade cooperation. (source XINHUA)
- China has recently accelerated the integration of sci-tech innovation with industrial innovation, demonstrating remarkable achievements in pursuing high-quality development. * The secret behind the innovation boom lies in China's robust industrial ecosystem, which is built on a policy framework to improve relevant services and help translate patents into products. * Going forward, China will strengthen the principal position of enterprises in sci-tech innovation, thereby creating a stronger synergy between scientific and industrial innovation. (source XINHUA)
- The China CSI 300 is off a touch, but still close to recent highs. The HSI is down around 1%, but still above the 25300 level. Japan markets are also weaker, the Topix off close to 0.85%. Proximity to earnings outcomes and the Fed decision/data is being cited as a headwind for these markets.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1511 Per USD; Estimate 7.1909
- The yield on the CGB 10yr has inched up to 1.73% with bond futures lower for the seventh day out of eight.
AUSTRALIA: VIEW: Westpac Sees Downside Risks To Its Trimmed Mean Forecast
Jul-29 05:12
Westpac’s Q2 trimmed mean inflation forecast of 0.7% q/q & 2.7% y/y is in line with Bloomberg consensus but it sees risks to the downside. “At two decimal places, our Trimmed Mean estimate is 0.66% which suggests there is greater risk of a 0.6% print than a 0.8% print.” Its headline projection though for Q2 and June are higher than consensus.
- Westpac doesn’t believe a trimmed mean print above its 2.6% y/y May forecast would be “enough to prevent the RBA from cutting rates at its August meeting”, especially as its projection suggests a 0.55% q/q Q2 rise.
- “Remembering that the data for the Trimmed Mean is seasonally adjusted, the range of trimming in the June quarter starts from a lower bound of –0.34% to an upper bound of 2.16%. Of the most significant items trimmed off the bottom are: auto fuel, furniture, insurance and international holidays. The most significant items trimmed off the top are medical & hospital services, tobacco, domestic holidays and electricity.”
- “Outside of electricity, housing costs remain in this measure of core inflation and as such represent a potential small upside risk for our nearcast of Trimmed Mean.”
- Westpac expects a 0.9% q/q & 2.3% y/y rise in Q2 headline with June rising to 2.3% y/y from 2.1% in May due to “solid gains” in rents, electricity (+9.3% q/q), garments, fruit & veg and travel. Housing should account for 0.3pp of the 0.9% q/q rise.
- In terms of housing, “The unwinding of the cost of living electricity rebates is expected to drive the lion’s share of the increase with utilities gaining 4.8%qtr contributing 0.2ppt. Meanwhile, rents are anticipated to still make a solid 1.0%qtr/0.07ppt contribution and dwellings are set to rise 0.4%qtr/0.03ppt after falling –0.4%qtr in the March quarter.”
