COPPER TECHS: (U5) Impulsive Bull Wave

• SOFR White packs (SFRM5-SFRH6), 0.045 at 0922ET, likely a swap-tied sale, spreads running wider in the short end

• Core goods CPI inflation underwhelmed in May, at -0.04% M/M (we’d seen analyst estimates of 0.20% median/0.25% mean) after 0.06% M/M in April. Core goods ex used vehicles meanwhile saw 0.03% M/M after 0.15% at what had been the strongest since Mar 2023.  

• There are some signs of tariff impacts on specific goods items within the details but they were offset by weak vehicle prices (used vehicles -0.54%, new vehicles -0.29%), apparel (-0.42% M/M) and furniture & bedding (-0.8% M/M, NSA) to name a few of the larger categories. 

  % M/M changes (some on a NSA basis):

• Major household appliances: 4.3% (most since Aug 2020)
• Audio equipment: 1.63% (NSA, after a booming 8.8% in April was the highest since series started in 2009)
• Vehicle Accessories & parts: 1.42% (NSA, after 2.17% in April was highest since Nov 2023)
• Games, toys & hobbies: 1.35% (most since Apr 2021)
• Tools, hardware & supplies: 1.12% (after 1.16% in April had been the fastest since Nov 2024)
• Medical equipment & supplies: 0.94% (NSA, highest since Jun 2024)
• Tires: 0.84% (NSA, most since Sep 2024)
• Medicinal drugs: 0.54% (NSA, most since Jan 2025)

US Cash opening calls, looking for a steady open, dust has settled

Fair value opens: SPX: 6,051.1 (+0.2%); DJIA: 42,901 (+0.1%/+34pts); NDX: 22,003.6 (+0.3%).