COPPER TECHS: (U5) Impulsive Bull Wave
- RES 4: $634.95 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 23 - May 9 price swing
- RES 3: $613.49 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 23 - May 9 price swing
- RES 2: $600.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $589.55 - High Jul 8
- PRICE: $552.95 @ 14:24 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: $497.25 - Low Jul 8 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $476.40 - Low Jun 13
- SUP 3: $453.05 - Low May 9
- SUP 4: $411.75 - Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
Copper futures rallied sharply higher on Tuesday resulting in a break of key resistance at $546.15, the Mar 26 high. The breach is seen as a key bullish development and reinforces the current primary uptrend. Sights are on a retest of this week’s $589.55 high, clearance of this level would open the $600.00 handle. Price action is likely to remain volatile. Key short-term support has been defined at $497.25, the Jul 8 low.
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SOFR: BLOCK: White Pack
- SOFR White packs (SFRM5-SFRH6), 0.045 at 0922ET, likely a swap-tied sale, spreads running wider in the short end
US DATA: Signs Of Tariff Impacts Within Core Goods CPI
- Core goods CPI inflation underwhelmed in May, at -0.04% M/M (we’d seen analyst estimates of 0.20% median/0.25% mean) after 0.06% M/M in April. Core goods ex used vehicles meanwhile saw 0.03% M/M after 0.15% at what had been the strongest since Mar 2023.
There are some signs of tariff impacts on specific goods items within the details but they were offset by weak vehicle prices (used vehicles -0.54%, new vehicles -0.29%), apparel (-0.42% M/M) and furniture & bedding (-0.8% M/M, NSA) to name a few of the larger categories.
% M/M changes (some on a NSA basis):
- Major household appliances: 4.3% (most since Aug 2020)
- Audio equipment: 1.63% (NSA, after a booming 8.8% in April was the highest since series started in 2009)
- Vehicle Accessories & parts: 1.42% (NSA, after 2.17% in April was highest since Nov 2023)
- Games, toys & hobbies: 1.35% (most since Apr 2021)
- Tools, hardware & supplies: 1.12% (after 1.16% in April had been the fastest since Nov 2024)
- Medical equipment & supplies: 0.94% (NSA, highest since Jun 2024)
- Tires: 0.84% (NSA, most since Sep 2024)
- Medicinal drugs: 0.54% (NSA, most since Jan 2025)
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
US Cash opening calls, looking for a steady open, dust has settled
Fair value opens: SPX: 6,051.1 (+0.2%); DJIA: 42,901 (+0.1%/+34pts); NDX: 22,003.6 (+0.3%).
