US TSYS: Twist Steepening Into Monthly Close

• RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6450 High Apr 29 
• PRICE: 0.6391 @ 16:50 BST Apr 30 
• SUP 1: 0.6344/6310 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11  
• SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support  

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading close to recent highs. Price has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6310, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.

We've just published our preview of the April employment report (which is released Friday). PDF HERE

• Nonfarm payrolls are seen increasing a seasonally adjusted 135k in April in the Bloomberg survey after a stronger than expected 228k in March.
• Primary dealer analysts also see 135k whilst the Bloomberg whisper is weaker again, currently at 120k.
• April won’t benefit from the favorable weather and returning strikers that helped March employment growth.
• Immigration restrictions are likely to increasingly drag on employment growth ahead although this month’s report could be a little early.
• There’s a similar argument for any adverse impact from tariffs, especially with weekly jobless claims proving robust. That said, some forward-looking measures look bleak.
• The unemployment rate is widely expected to round to 4.2% again after inching up to 4.15% in March from 4.14% in Feb. AHE growth meanwhile is mostly expected at 0.3% M/M with some mild downside skew.
• A solid report shouldn’t change the narrative ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting but a weak report might.
• Markets are pricing in nearly 70% probability of a cut by June, with 41bp through the end-July FOMC. Just over 100bp of cuts are seen through year-end, and we’ve seen the lowest terminal rates since September’s 50bp rate cut (around 3.00% per SOFR) as the negative growth impact of US tariff policy is assessed.

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.76/164.19 High Apr 25 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 161.80 @ 16:49 GMT Apr 30 
• SUP 1: 161.43/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9    
• SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support 
• SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4 

A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and short-term weakness appears corrective. Key short-term support lies at 158.30, the Apr 7 low. A break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is 161.43, the 50-day EMA. Attention is on 164.19, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.