Euribor futures have been dragged higher by SOFR counterparts this afternoon, now flat to +4.5 ticks through the blues. ERZ6 is +3.5 ticks at 98.215, narrowing the gap to resistance at 98.255 (April 22 high).
- European rates have largely looked through today’s flash GDP and April inflation data. Although Q1 GDP was stronger-than-expected at a rounded 0.4% Q/Q (vs 0.2% cons and prior), it was flattered by rounding and tariff-related Irish export frontloading.
- Meanwhile, country-level flash April inflation prints released so far suggest consensus for a 2.1% Y/Y Eurozone-wide headline rate (vs 2.2% prior) remains intact, with risks tilting towards a lower reading.
- Meanwhile, there appear to be upside risks to the 2.5% Y/Y EZ core consensus (vs 2.4% prior), with Easter-timing related effects apparent in Germany and Italy especially. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs now expect a 2.6% core reading (vs 2.5% initial projection).
- ECB-dated OIS now price 66bps of easing through December, 3bps more dovish on the session.
- A reminder that most of Europe will be closed tomorrow for the Labour Day Holiday. Eurozone-wide flash April inflation is due on Friday, alongside March unemployment (cons 6.1% vs 6.1% prior).
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 1.924 | -24.3 |
Jul-25 | 1.785 | -38.3 |
Sep-25 | 1.624 | -54.3 |
Oct-25 | 1.571 | -59.6 |
Dec-25 | 1.511 | -65.6 |
Feb-26 | 1.501 | -66.6 |
Mar-26 | 1.492 | -67.5 |
Apr-26 | 1.506 | -66.1 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |