US: Trump On Putin Call: Great Progress Was Made
Oct-16 17:15
Trump on Putin call on Truth Social. * "great progress was made" * "President Putin and I will then...
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: 20Y Review: Solid Details See Little Reaction After Prior Rally
Sep-16 17:11
- The 20Y auction saw a small trade through along with more encouraging internals, with a bounce in bid-to-cover and indirect take-up after low readings last month along with the lowest dealer take since mid-2024.
- Little reaction in treasuries however, having already pushed back to joint session highs ahead of the auction. TYZ5 actually dips a tick off those joint highs of 113-18.
- 20Y yields little changed post-results, down -1.2bp on the day and still underperforming the front end with 2Y and 3Y yields down closer to 3bps.
- A minor trade through of 0.2bps (high yield of 4.613% vs WI yield of 4.615%). It follows the 0.1bp trade through last month with a prior five-auction range of a 1.5bp trade through to a 1.2bp tail.
- Bid-to-cover: 2.74, rebounding from a lower 2.54 in Aug after 2.79 in Jul. The five-auction average had been 2.62.
- Indirect take-up: 64.6% after 60.6% in Aug (lowest since Feb 2024 and then Nov 2021) and 67.4%, or vs five-auction average of 66.9%.
- Direct take-up: 27.9% after 21.9% in Aug and a five-auction average of 18.9%
- Dealer take-up: 7.6% after 12.9% in Aug and a five-auction average of 14.2%
FED: US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.613%; ALLOT 14.96%
Sep-16 17:02
- US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.613%; ALLOT 14.96%
- US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 7.57% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 27.87% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 64.56% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: BID/COV 2.74
FOREX: Dollar Weakness Extends Pre-Fed, New Cycle Highs for EURUSD
Sep-16 16:51
- The underlying trend of dollar weakness picked up pace on Tuesday, with FX market participants potentially getting caught off guard ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Stronger-than-expected US retail sales data did little to stall this weaker dollar momentum, with a brief blip higher for the greenback merely offering better levels for sellers. The dollar index now trades within 30 pips of the cycle lows located at 96.38.
- The most important development across G10 was the outperformance of the Euro, and the associated move for EURUSD (+0.93%) to fresh four-year highs above 1.1829. Spot has rallied to 1.1871 as the US session progresses and the pair remains tied to session highs as we approach the APAC crossover. 1.1923 and 1.2000 provide the next technical targets for the rally.
- In similar vein, the Swiss Franc tops the G10 leaderboard, rising 1% against the dollar. USDCHF has just fallen to a new cycle low of 0.7865, the lowest level since the removal of the Swiss Franc peg in 2015.
- GBPUSD (+0.45%) made further inroads above 1.36, following a significant technical breakout this week. Today’s broad dollar weakness remains the dominant driver of the move, however, sterling positioning dynamics linked to pessimism surrounding the UK fiscal story may be exacerbating the latest leg higher for cable. Immediate resistance at 1.3681, the July 4 high, has capped the advance so far. Above here, 1.3789 remains the key resistance for the pair, the July 1 high.
- Weaker equity indices slightly hampered the momentum for the likes of AUD and NZD on Tuesday, which have relatively underperformed. With that said, AUDUSD is edging higher into the close, narrowing the gap to 0.6688, the US election related highs and a key resistance.
- In emerging markets, the Euro outperformance has bolstered CE3 FX significantly, with the likes of USDHUF and USDPLN also hitting multi-year lows. The Mexican peso also maintains its run of stellar form, reaching the highest level against the dollar since July last year.
- UK CPI data headlines the data calendar on Wednesday before the focus turns to both the BOC and Fed decisions, due later in the session.
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