US-CHINA: Trump Goes On Offensive Against China, Says Violates Trade Deal

For the Treasury Refunding Announcement at 0830ET, we will immediately post the most relevant developments (if any) on issuance guidance, anticipated Treasury bond auction sizes for the upcoming quarter, and anything else of note.

• Our preview is here. To recap on the main expectations:
• Treasury is not expected to adjust its guidance that it will keep nominal coupon auction sizes unchanged for “at least the next several quarters”, though there are some analysts that see elevated risks that this guidance could be softened to indicate increased openness to larger coupon sizes in future. This would be a Treasury-negative development as it would suggest risks that higher supply may be coming sooner than currently anticipated by consensus (which is currently somewhere between Q1 2026 and Q3 2026).
• Increases in nominal coupon sizes are not expected for the upcoming quarter. May is set to see $324B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $18B in 10Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $370B – a joint-post-Oct 2021 high.
• The refunding documents will be released here.

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.36% (+0.00), volume: $2.623T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.35% (+0.00), volume: $1.059T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.35% (+0.00), volume: $1.018T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

• German HICP came in a tenth higher than consensus expected at 2.2%Y/Y.
• The national print also came in one tenth higher than consensus at 2.1%Y/Y - this is in line with the MNI tracking from the state estimates which indicated 2.1-2.2%Y/Y - so not a big surprise here.