Senate Democrats could withdraw support from the pending 'Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025' if President Donald Trump is provided unchecked authority over the implementation of primary sanctions and secondary tariffs.
- Bill co-author, Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC), has touted the package as having veto-proof support. However, as Trump leans towards endorsing the package, Graham is including language to insulate Trump from Congressional oversight. Trump told NBC that the bill "lets the president do whatever he wants... it’s at my option if I want to use it.”
- Democrat cosponsor Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) said while a waiver is "pretty normal," he "would have some problem" with an "open-ended” waiver. Another Democrat cosponsor, Chris Coons (D-DE), said Trump is "going to try and essentially take the force out of a strongly bipartisan sanctions bill”.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has indicated he will take up the bill on the week of July 21, shortly before a month-long Congressional recess. The bill would impose primary sanctions on Russia if it initiates another military operation against Ukraine or refuses to engage in good faith negotiations with Ukraine. It also imposes a 500 percent tariff on imported goods from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products.
- The implied probability of Trump increasing sanctions by August hit 50% shortly after Graham’s bullish comments this week, per Polymarket.
Figure 1: Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?

Source: Polymarket