EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 97.57 High Jul 24(cont)
• RES 3: 97.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 96.66 0.764 proj of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• RES 1: 96.49 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 95.37@ Close Sep 15
• SUP 1: 94.95 High Sep 8
• SUP 2: 94.70 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 94.05 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 93.36 Low Sep 6 and a key support

Gilt futures traded higher last week, extending the recovery from 93.36, the Sep 6 low. Key short-term resistance at 95.79, the Sep 1 high, has been breached and this signals a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 17, opening 96.66 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of 97.00. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 94.70, the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower and a break of this support would signal a possible reversal.

Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E17.1bln at first round operations this week, down from E23.2bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the new 12-month Sep 18, 2024 bubill.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will look to sell E1-2bln of the 4.5-month Jan 30, 2024 DTC and E1-2bln of the 5.5-month Feb 28, 2024 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will look to sell up to E6.5bln of 13/20/50 week BTFs: E2.1-2.5bln of the new 13-week Dec 20, 2023 BTF; E1.4-1.8bln of the 20-week Feb 7, 2024 BTF; E1.8-2.2bln of the 50-week Sep 4, 2024 BTF.
• Tomorrow, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Mar 21, 2024 bills.
• On Wednesday morning, Portugal will look to sell E1.25-1.50bln combined of the 6-month Mar 15, 2024 BT and the new 12-month Sep 20, 2024 BT.
• Finally on Wednesday, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Dec 8, 2023 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Mar 8, 2024 EU-bill.