USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3792 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3631 @ 16:29 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 1.3591 Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and short-term gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3792. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.
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OPTIONS: US Options Roundup - June 2, 2025
Monday's US rates/bond options flow included:
- TYU5 105p, bought for '05 in 5k
- SFRM5 95.68pn sold at 1.75 in 6k (on Block).
- SFRN5 96.75 calls bought for 1.25 in 20k
- SFRM5 96.62c bought for 0.25 in 30k.
- SFRM5 96.00c (x2), with 96.31c (x3), bought as a strip for 1.75 in 4.5k.
- SFRM5 95.81/95.75ps, traded for 6 in 10k total (8k was done on Block).
- SFRZ5 95.75/95.62ps 1x2, traded flat in 2k.
- SFRU5 95.87/95.75/95.68/95.56p condor, sold at 5.75 in 2k and 5.625 in 10k.
- 0QM5/2QM5 96.87c spread, traded for -1 in 1.5k.
0NQ5 96.30/96.50/96.70c fly, bought for 3.75 in 4k.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26
- PRICE: 0.6493 @ 16:38 BST Jun 2
- SUP 1: 0.6396/85 2.0% Lower 10-day Bollinger Band / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
AUDUSD trend signals remain bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6385, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
US TSYS: Light Bear Steepening To Start The Week
Treasuries gave back some of Friday's month end gains on Monday, with the cash curve lightly bear steepening.
- Yields ticked up at the open from Friday's multi-week lows, with a prevailing negative tone on US assets (weaker USD and equities) following Friday's post-close announcement by President Trump that the administration would double steel and aluminum tariffs.
- Most of the session's data was on the soft side of expectations if somewhat stagflationary, with May's ISM manufacturing below-expected (with weak sub-components, albeit prices paid in-line), and construction spending contracting again in April.
- But reaction was muted and yields would head to session highs and stay there after Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q2 was upgraded to 4.6% (from 3.8%) and equities turned positive into the cash close. Fed speakers (Logan, Goolsbee, Powell) likewise saw no discernable reaction.
- Yields were set to close near the highs: the 2-Yr yield is up 4.3bps at 3.9407%, 5-Yr is up 5.4bps at 4.0156%, 10-Yr is up 5.9bps at 4.4596%, and 30-Yr is up 6.3bps at 4.9935%.
- Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) are down 8.5/32 at 110-15.5 (L: 110-13.5 / H: 110-30), having fallen just through Friday's lows in orderly fashion.
- Tuesday's calendar includes factory orders and JOLTS data, with an appearance by Fed's Cook among other speakers, while the week's focus is Friday's employment report for May.
