USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
Nov-06 07:18
- RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 3: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 154.80 High Feb 12
- RES 1: 154.48 High Nov 4
- PRICE: 153.95 @ 07:17 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 152.96 High Oct 10
- SUP 2: 152.39 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 150.56 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 149.38 Low Oct 17
USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and Wednesday’s recovery from the session low reinforces this theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of the uptrend would pave the way for a climb towards 154.80, the Feb 12 high. Sights are on 154.80. First important support to watch lies at 152.39, the 20-day EMA.
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CROSS ASSET: Higher Yields boost the USDJPY
Oct-07 07:16
- The Push lower in Bonds futures will be supportive of the Dollar and especially the USDJPY, now probing a new intraday high, and eyeing the next big level noted earlier at 150.92.
- There's continued selling interest in Core Bonds and while the Volumes haven't picked up, the lower liquidity means that it takes little order size to move markets.
- US TYZ5 printed a 112.11 low Yesterday, some desks might look for support at 112.06, but better will be seen around 112.03 (4.20% in Yield).
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: 2.75% Dec-32 / New 15-year Dec-40 EU-bond: Books open
Oct-07 07:10
2.75% Dec-32 EU-bond
- Guidance: MS + 36bps area
- Size: E5bln (MNI expected E4-5bln)
New 15-year Dec-2040
- Guidance: MS + 77bps area
- Size: E5bln (MNI expects E5-6bln)
- ISIN: TBC
- Coupon: Long first
- Maturity: 12 December 2040
For both:
- JLMs: BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, DZ BANK and Santander
- Settlement: 14 October 2025 (T+5)
- Timing: Books open, pricing later today
From market source / MNI colour
GOLD: Another Fresh All-Time High Before A Pullback To Little Changed
Oct-07 07:09
Gold has registered another fresh all-time high at $3,977.4/oz today, before a pullback to trade -$5/oz at $3,955/oz at typing.
- Fresh extension higher would target projection resistance ($3,987.3/oz), which protects psychological resistance at $4,000/oz
- Our technical analyst stresses that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup and price continues to appreciate despite RSI operating in overbought territory since early September. Furthermore, the metal shows little sign of weakness during any pullbacks in spot, underscoring the bullish narrative.
- Geopolitical worry, Fed independence risk, expectations for further Fed easing, ETF & official account demand and broader concerns re: the potential for further USD weakness continue to present the central pillars of the bullish narrative.
- Goldman Sachs have lifted their December ‘26 gold price forecast to $4,900/oz ($4,300/oz prior), suggesting that “inflows driving the 17% rally since August 26 - Western ETF inflows and likely central bank buying - are sticky” in their pricing framework, “in contrast, noisier speculative positioning has remained broadly stable”.
- They also see the risks to their “upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above rates-implied estimates”.
- We will update on broader positioning in the gold market later today.
