SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg  
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3868 High Aug 26 
• RES 1: 1.3815 High Sep 02
• PRICE: 1.3797 @ 08:12 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 1.3722 Low Aug 7 and a pivot support  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

The bull cycle in USDCAD that started mid-June remains in play. However, the latest corrective pullback has resulted in a breach through support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3775. A clear break of this handle signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3722, the Aug 7 low. Near term, the recovery from the Aug 29 low also highlights a potential early reversal signal. A continuation higher would open the bull trigger at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high.

The Norwegian vacancy rate fell to 2.7% in Q2, down from 3.0% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q4. It’s the lowest rate since Q1 2021, though remains above the 2010-2019 average rate of 2.3%. As such, while there are some signs of softening labour demand, it’s not yet a smoking gun for Norges Bank to deliver another rate cut in September. There’s much more focus on next week’s inflation and Regional Network Survey data.  

• In Q2, the only sectors which saw an increase in the vacancy rate were Agriculture, forestry and fishing (1.3% vs 1.1% in Q1) and Arts, entertainment, recreation and personal service activities (3.0% vs 1.9% in Q1).
• It’s worth noting that NAV’s tracking of job vacancies indicated a 2% Y/Y rise in vacancies in August – a somewhat stronger signal than Statistics Norway’s measure above.
• The Norwegian Beveridge curve shows slightly different dynamics when plotted against the NAV registered unemployment versus LFS unemployment series'. However, the broad picture in both is that the labour market is gradually loosening, but not concerningly so.  

Commerzbank suggest that “several factors argue for the bearish long-end dynamics to lose momentum. 30-Year OAT yields stabilised around 4.50% and 10-Year Bunds found support around 2.80%. Duration demand was very strong at yesterday's 30-Year BTP syndication, an increasing number of investors tell us that they consider real yields attractive at these levels, and last but not least, risk-sentiment is under pressure. We would therefore buy Bunds dips above 2.80% in 10-Year yields”.