GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: .3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17
- RES 2: 1.3537 High Sep 23 1
- RES 1: 1.3427 Low Sep 24
- PRICE: 1.3407 @ 18:45 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
GBPUSD traded lower last Thursday, marking an extension of the current bear cycle that started Sep 17. The move down has resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of it would signal a reversal.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Trend Structure Intact
- RES 4: 113-06 2.236 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 113-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 112-28+ 2.000 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 112-20+ High Aug 28
- PRICE: 112-16+ @ 19:29 BST Aug 29
- SUP 1: 111-29 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 111-17+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The trend outlook in Treasury futures remains bullish. This week’s gains have delivered a print above 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle and paves the way for a climb towards the 113-00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. First support to watch is 111-29, the 20-day EMA.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation Month End Rebound
RRP usage more than doubles to $77.898B going into month end with 26 counterparties this afternoon, from $31.966B yesterday. Compares to $22.344B on Tuesday, Aug 19 - lowest since April 5, 2021 vs. this year's high usage of $460.731B on June 30.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 1 September 2025
Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium, the ESM, Greece and the EU all look to sell bills in the upcoming week. We estimate issuance at first round operations at E26.7bln for the week, up from E18.8bln this week.
- On Monday, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the 6-month Mar 18, 2026 Bubill.
- Also on Monday morning, the Netherlands will look to sell E1.0-2.0bln of the 2-month Oct 30, 2025 DTC alongside E1.0-2.0bln of the new 6-month Feb 26, 2026 DTC.
- On Monday afternoon, France will look to sell up to a combined E7.1bln of 14/19/27/49-week BTFs: 2.6-3.0bln of the new 14-week Dec 10, 2025 BTF, E0-0.4bln of the 19-week Jan 14, 2026 BTF, E1.4-1.8bln of the 27-week Mar 11, 2026 BTF and E1.5b-1.9bln of the 49-week Aug 12, 2026 BTF.
- On Tuesday, Spain will look to sell 6-month Mar 6, 2026 letras and new 12-month Sep 4, 2026 letras. The auction size will be announced on Monday.
- Also on Tuesday morning, Belgium will look to sell a combined E3.0-3.4bln of TCs: an indicative E1.6bln of the 3-month Dec 11, 2025 TC, an indicative E0.8bln of the 6-month Mar 12, 2026 TC and an indicative E0.8bln of the 11-month Aug 13, 2026 TC.
- Later on Tuesday, the ESM will hold a larger auction than usual with up to E1.5bln of new 3-month Dec 4, 2025 bills on offer (rather than the usual auction size of up to E1.1bln).
- On Wednesday, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 52-week Sep 4, 2026 GTB.
- The EU will conclude bill issuance for the week, also on Wednesday, with up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Dec 5, 2025 EU-bill on offer alongside up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Mar 6, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the new 12-month Sep 4, 2026 EU-bill.
