TURKEY: Trade Deficit Widens in April to Largest Since July 2023

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.686 - High APr 25                                        
• PRICE: $33.100 @ 08:08 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: $32.087 -  Low Apr 17               
• SUP 2: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A strong rally in Silver on Apr 23 reinforces the current bullish theme and the metal is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has cleared $33.117, 76.4% of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards $34.590, the Mar 28 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch has been defined at $32.087, the Apr 17 low. A break of this level would undermine the bull cycle and highlight a potential reversal.

Spanish April preliminary HICP came in firmer than expected on the yearly rate at +2.2% Y/Y (vs +2.0% cons; +2.2% prior) and the sequential reading at 0.6% M/M (0.3% cons; 0.7% prior). The national CPI also came in above expectations at +2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.0% cons; 2.3% prior) and 0.6% M/M (vs 0.4% cons; 0.1% prior).

• Core CPI came in above expectations, also, at +2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.3% cons; 2.0% prior). Core HICP was 2.5% Y/Y.
• The headline rate was driven downwards by energy, while the leisure and culture category had an upward contribution vs last month, INE added.
• Ahead of the release, analysts had expected firmer travel-related services to push up core inflation, and energy to fall materially as a base effect and a sequential deceleration act in tandem.
• Hence, on the direction of drivers, the release appears to be as expected - but potentially, the jump in travel-related categories was stronger than anticipated, explaining the core 'beat'.
• Overall, there is little colour in the press release, so for full detail, especially on underlying services momentum vs the one-off travel categories, we will have to await the final data.
• For context, Spain represents 12% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2025.

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4120 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3906/3972 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3839 @ 08:04 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, the outlook remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 highlights a resumption of the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3972, the 20-day EMA.