TURKEY: Trade Deficit Widens in April to Largest Since July 2023
- Turkey’s trade deficit widened to $12.09bln in April from a revised deficit of $7.19bln in March, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, broadly in-line with analyst estimates. That marks the largest deficit since July 2023. Exports rose 7.8% y/y while imports rose 12.7% y/y.
- Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will pay a two-day visit to Ukraine after his talks in Russia, Hurriyet report citing Turkish diplomatic sources, in a sign of Turkey’s growing role and influence in the region. The sources said Fidan will be in Kiev on May 29 and 30 where he will meet Ukraine President Volodymir Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials. Fidan was in Moscow earlier in the week.
- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks in Istanbul at 13:00BST/15:00 local time, while the central bank publishes weekly capital flows data at 12:30BST/14:30 local time.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Structure
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686 - High APr 25
- PRICE: $33.100 @ 08:08 BST Apr 29
- SUP 1: $32.087 - Low Apr 17
- SUP 2: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A strong rally in Silver on Apr 23 reinforces the current bullish theme and the metal is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has cleared $33.117, 76.4% of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards $34.590, the Mar 28 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch has been defined at $32.087, the Apr 17 low. A break of this level would undermine the bull cycle and highlight a potential reversal.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spain April Inflation Firmer Than Expected
Spanish April preliminary HICP came in firmer than expected on the yearly rate at +2.2% Y/Y (vs +2.0% cons; +2.2% prior) and the sequential reading at 0.6% M/M (0.3% cons; 0.7% prior). The national CPI also came in above expectations at +2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.0% cons; 2.3% prior) and 0.6% M/M (vs 0.4% cons; 0.1% prior).
- Core CPI came in above expectations, also, at +2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.3% cons; 2.0% prior). Core HICP was 2.5% Y/Y.
- The headline rate was driven downwards by energy, while the leisure and culture category had an upward contribution vs last month, INE added.
- Ahead of the release, analysts had expected firmer travel-related services to push up core inflation, and energy to fall materially as a base effect and a sequential deceleration act in tandem.
- Hence, on the direction of drivers, the release appears to be as expected - but potentially, the jump in travel-related categories was stronger than anticipated, explaining the core 'beat'.
- Overall, there is little colour in the press release, so for full detail, especially on underlying services momentum vs the one-off travel categories, we will have to await the final data.
- For context, Spain represents 12% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2025.
USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4120 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3972 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3839 @ 08:04 BST Apr 29
- SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, the outlook remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 highlights a resumption of the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3972, the 20-day EMA.
