EM ASIA CREDIT: Tencent (TENCNT, A1/A+/A+) AI builds rating buffer

• RES 4: 133.00 round number resistance               
• RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance       
• RES 2: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 131.57 High APr 15                     
• PRICE: 131.48 @ 05:35 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 129.84/128.60 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9         
• SUP 2: 128.47 Low Mar 28            
• SUP 3: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 127.20 Low Mar 17   

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The trend condition is unchanged, a bull cycle remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high on Apr 7 reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has recently cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This opens 132.56 next, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support lies at 128.60, the Apr 9 low. A break below this level would alter the picture.

NZGBs closed showing a bear-flattening, with benchmark yields flat to 3bps cheaper. The 2-year closed around mid-range, while the 10-year outperformed, ending at session highs, supported by strength in cash US tsys. 

• In today’s Asia-Pac session, US tsys are exhibiting a twist-steepener, with yields ranging from 3bps lower at the short end to 1bp higher further out the curve.
• Today’s US calendar sees: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and NAHB Housing Market Index. Fed Chair Powell will also deliver a speech about the economic outlook.
• Swap rates closed with rates 2bps lower to 1bp higher, with a steeper curve.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly mixed across meetings. 28bps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 80bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Q1 CPI data. It is expected to show a pickup in inflation from Q4 but still comfortably within the RBNZ’s 1-3% band.
• Bloomberg consensus is at 0.8% q/q & 2.4% y/y, in line with the RBNZ’s February forecast but higher than Q4’s 0.5% q/q & 2.2% y/y. Both tradeables and non-tradeables are projected to post a stronger quarterly increase than in Q4.
• The NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$275mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond and NZ$225mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond tomorrow.

• Gold finished where the US trading session left today, clawing back some of the falls from Monday as tariff uncertainty continues.
• Opening at $3,230.75, gold rallied during the day to reach $3,274.40 – another new record.
• Gold has reasserted its position above all major moving averages with the closest the 20-day EMA of 3,109.47
• South Africa's gold production fell 7.6% y/y in February versus +1.0% in January, according to Statistics South Africa.
• Gold Fields Ltd is preparing to comply with an order from the Ghanaian government to vacate one of its mines after the government rejected a lease extension.  Gold Fields Ltd
• Authorities in Mali have closed Barrick Gold’s Head Office over a tax dispute.