EU REAL ESTATE: TAG Immo (TEGGR: Baa3/BBB-) 1Q25
Guidance lower than hoped at FFO 0.99/shr vs 1.01/shr. Good performance in Rental division. Convertible issuance in March covered all financing needs for 2025/26. LTV down a little. Significant drop in Polish development sales activity – blamed on seasonal factors.
• +3% lfl rental growth in Germany & Poland.
• Rental Adj EBITDA €62.8m vs €61.4m.
• Polish development EBITDA came in at only €5.9m vs €22.8m.
• LTV 45.6% down from 46.9%
• 2025 guidance confirmed. Flat y-o-y.
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BTP TECHS: (M5) Resumes Its Uptrend
- RES 4: 120.65 1.382 proj of the MAr 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 2: 120.12 High High Mar 4
- RES 1: 119.43 Intraday high
- PRICE: 119.41 @ 07:03 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 117.91 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger
BTP futures rallied sharply higher Monday. The rally resulted in a break of resistance at 119.07, the Apr 4 high. The breach confirms the end of recent Apr 4 - 9 correction and cancels what appeared last week to be a developing bearish threat. Sights are on 119.29, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg (pierced). A clear break of this level would open 120.12, the Mar 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 117.91, the 20-day EMA.
UK DATA: Hard to get a great reading from the labour market data at first glance
- AWE Earnings a tenth weaker than expected for both total economy and private regular.
- The LFS employment change was a bit higher than expected (but unemployment rate was still in line with consensus).
- It looks as though there is a big downward surprise to the flash HMRC payrolls print.
- No huge movement and hard to really get a great reading from the data at first glance. Will look into the details now and follow up.
MNI: UK MAR CLAIMANT CHG +18700
- MNI: UK MAR CLAIMANT CHG +18700
- UK MAR CLAIMANT RATE +4.7%
- UK FEB AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS +5.6% YY
- UK FEB AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS EX-BONUS +5.9% YY
