BUNDS: /SWAPS: Natixis Recommend Longs In RX/UB Invoice Spread
Mar-14 14:39
Natixis see “a greater steepening potential on the € swap curve than on the German curve, as political constraints in Germany will likely contribute to an undershoot on ambitious fiscal targets. At the same time, Dutch pension funds transitioning to a defined contribution scheme will factor into long end of the € swap curve”.
- They also note that “as we think the swap spread tightening potential is more limited for the German 10s than 30s, we recommend going long the RX/UB €STR invoice spread”.
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EQUITIES: Program seller on the US Cash Open
Feb-12 14:38
No real surprises in seeing a decent program seller on the Open as Cash Equities gapped lower.
- Program seller with 1688 names, this was the most since 18th December.
US DATA: Core Goods CPI Acceleration Mostly (But Not All) About Used Cars (1/2)
Feb-12 14:33
While almost all major categories of CPI came in above expectations in January, the contribution to the monthly core M/M figure (0.3% M/M, vs 0.0% Dec) saw some sequential slowdowns as well as accelerations.
- We start with core goods inflation, which swung from contributing negative 0.01pp to overall core CPI in December, to a positive 0.07pp contribution in January (a 0.3% M/M rise vs 0.0% in Dec).
- This rise in core goods was entirely accounted for by used vehicles, which posted 2.2% M/M gains, a 20-month high - new car inflation decelerated (0.0% vs 0.4% prior).
- Non-vehicle core goods neither contributed nor added to core CPI in January, but this contrasts with subtracting 0.04pp in December.
- This a particularly unusual outcome since apparel had one of the biggest monthly drops (-1.4% M/M) in its history, and easily the biggest fall since the start of the pandemic in 2020.
- And in addition, household furnishings (a large 3.4% of the CPI basket) saw a second consecutive 0.2% decline.
- Instead it looks like the core goods acceleration was driven by a wide swathe of items. Recreational (1.8% of CPI) and education/communication commodities (0.8% of CPI), alcoholic beverages (0.8% of CPI), and "other goods" (notably personal care products) each entered positive M/M territory after declines in December.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 30Y Buy
Feb-12 14:30
- +5,000 USH5 113-14, buy through 113-13 post time offer at 0922:37ET, DV01 $620,000. The 30Y contract trades 113-14 last (-1-09).
