EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2
- PRICE: 0.8697 @ 20:25 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 0.8641/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
The recent pullback in EURGBP appears corrective and Tuesday’s rally signals the end of the corrective phase. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. First support is 0.8641, the 50-day EMA.
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US TSYS: Early Support From Soft US Build Permits & Canadian CPI Data
- Treasuries look to finish near late Tuesday session highs (TYU5 +8.5 at 111-25), curves bull flattening with bonds outperforming (2s10s -2.245 at 54.607, 5s30s -.571 at 107.952).
- Rates rebounded after this morning's data - lower than expected build permits outweighing higher than expected housing starts, while softer Canadian CPI aggregates added to support.
- Housing starts were far stronger than expected in July at 1428k (saar, cons 1297k) after an upward revised 1358k (initial 1321k) in June. It left starts rising 5.2% M/M (cons -1.8%) after a stronger than first thought 5.9% (initial 4.6%) as they bounced after a -8.3% M/M decline in May (also revised from -9.7%).
- Canadian all-items CPI rose 1.73% Y/Y unrounded (1.86% prior, 1.8% expected by MNI median), and 0.12% M/M (0.18% prior, 0.4% expected).
- US$ rising to one week highs, price action was assisted by a dip lower for the major equity benchmarks, as a cautious risk off mood prevails given the lack of progress regarding a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire and the notable weakness for tech stocks in the US.
- Stocks in retreat (Nasdaq -323.04 at 21306.66) ahead of Wednesday's July FOMC minutes not to mention Friday's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole Wyoming.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6461 @ 16:32 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
AUDUSD is off its most recent highs but continues to trade in a range. From a trend perspective, the condition remains bullish highlighted by MA studies that remain in a bull-mode position. Key resistance to monitor, has been defined at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 0.6677, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Paired as Underlying Rises
SOFR and Treasury options traded a little more evenly between calls & puts Tuesday after better SOFR call interest in the first half. Underlying futures trading near late session highs helped projected rate cut pricing gain some traction vs. early morning (*) levels: Sep'25 at -21.7bp (-20.9bp), Oct'25 at -35.1bp (-34.1bp), Dec'25 at -54.4bp (-53.5bp), Jan'26 at -65.6bp (-64.1bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +10,000 SFRU5 95.81 puts, 3.0 vs. 95.9125/0.21%
- 4,400 0QV5 96.56/96.68 put spd vs. 2QV5 96.50/96.62 put spds
- +2,000 SFRU5 95.93/96.00/96.06/96.12 call condors, 0.75
- +2,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/95.87 put flys, .37 ref 95.90
- +2,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.25 call spds. .87 ref 95.897
- +4,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12/96.18 broken call flys, 1.0
- 6,600 SFRX5 96.12/96.25/96.50 call trees ref 96.205
- 2,000 2QZ5 96.12/96.31/96.56 2x3x1 put flys
- 5,000 0QU5 96.50/96.68 put spds ref 96.795
- 3,500 SFRX5 96.12/96.25/96.50 broken call trees ref 96.195
- 2,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.00 put spds
- 10,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12 1x2 call spds
- 17,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12/96.25 call flys ref 95.895 (adds to some +60k traded through Mon at .75)
- (Note: Large late Monday buying in Oct'25 96.50 calls, volume 180,197 saw open interest climb +95,227 to 226,924)
- Treasury Options: (reminder Sep options expire Friday)
- 12,300 wk5 FV 107.5/108 2x1 put spds 1 vs. 108-29/0.05%
- -6,000 TYV5/TYZ5 112 call spds 29
- -5,000 TYV5 110.5/112.5 call over risk reversals, 11 vs. 111-23
- -7,300 FVV5 108.25/109.5 call over risk reversals, 3 vs. 108-28
- 2,000 USU5 117/119 call spds ref 114-07
- +5,000 TYV5 111.5 puts, 45 ref 111-19/0.48%
- 50,000 TYV5 113 calls, 19 ref 111-20
- over 10,200 TYU5 112.5 calls, 2 last
- over 7,800 TYU5 113 calls, 1 last
- over 9,000 TYV5 111 puts, 31 last ref 111-19
- 4,700 TYU5 113 calls, 1 ref 111-19
- 3,900 TUV5 103.75/104.5 strangles ref 104-01.38
- 1,500 TYU5 111.5/111.75 2x3 call spds ref 111-16.5
- 1,250 TUV5 103.5 puts ref 104-01.75
- 1,750 TUV5 103.75 puts ref 104-01.88
