EM ASIA CREDIT: Sunac China: July property sales

US President Trump has posted via Truth Social that the US will start delivering letters outlining tariff levels to various countries starting 12pm Monday US eastern time. See the full post below. Trade deals will also be announced at the same time. 

• Focus will be on tariff levels, particularly after Trump remarks late last week, where he stated tariff levels could be as high as 60-70% (although further details weren't provided). This, along with scope for further negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline, are likely to be key focus points. 

" Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump I am pleased to announce that the UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters, and/or Deals, with various Countries from around the World, will be delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7th. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, President of The United States of America." 

• In a subsequent post via Truth Social, Trump stated: "Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

At the time of writing, RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer on the day across meetings ahead of tomorrow’s RBA Policy Decision. 

• A 25bp rate cut this week is given a 93% probability, with a cumulative 78bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
• Notably, today’s moves leave meetings pricing 15-32bps softer than levels before the May 20 RBA Meeting.

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Pre-RBA (May)

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI 

The ANZ June job ads print was +1.8%m/m, after a revised fall of 0.6% in May (originally reported as a -1.2% decline). In y/y terms, jobs ads are -0.4%. At the start of the year we were at -13.7%. This was the best m/m increase for the index since Sep last year. It points to continued resilience in terms of labor market conditions. The chart below plots the ANZ job ads m/m change versus monthly employment growth in Australia. 

•  The RBA meets tomorrow, with a 25bps cut widely expected. The central bank is likely to continue to emphasize the tight labor market, but this is unlikely to be enough to offset greater comfort around inflation trends, which should see them ease further. 

Fig 1: ANZ Job Ads Post Solid Rise in June 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P/ANZ/MNI