EU AUTOMOTIVE: Stellantis (STLA: Baa1 neg/BBB/BBB): Fitch Cut to BBB

• RES 4: 132.80 High May 5 and a key resistance             
• RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance    
• RES 2: 131.95 High Mar 4 
• RES 1: 130.88 Low MAr 3                 
• PRICE: 129.75 @ 05:53 GMT Mar 5 
• SUP 1: 129.41 Low Feb 14 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 129.00 Round number support             
• SUP 3: 128.68 1.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 4: 128.33 1.764 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing  

Bund futures have gapped sharply lower today and price action is likely to remain volatile. The contract is trading just ahead of a key support at 129.41, the Feb 14 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a move towards the 129.00 handle. Moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Resistance is at 130.88, the Mar 3 low.

•  China set its economic growth goal at about 5% for 2025, raising expectations for officials to unleash more stimulus as they confront a trade war with the US. (source: BBG).
• China raised its general budget deficit to the highest level in more than three decades, as Beijing ramps up spending to counter the effects of rising US tariffs.   The government set this year’s fiscal deficit target to 5.66 trillion yuan ($780 billion), or around 4% of gross domestic product, according to the annual work report Premier Li Qiang delivered to the national parliament on Wednesday. (source: BBG)
• Strong day for most indexes with Hang Seng leading up +1.78%, CSI 300 +0.17%, Shanghai Comp +0.15% whilst Shenzhen fell -0.40%
• CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1714 Per USD; Estimate 7.2635
• Bonds: despite suggestions of higher issuance, bonds hardly moved today with the CGB 10YR 1.75%

• The record Treasury futures trade appears to have been an unwinding of a long position in the TYM5 contract, as open interest in the contract dropped. The Tsys block trade saw a seller offload 78,000 TYH4 futures in early London trading, with a DV01 $5.1m.
• Simultaneously, S&P 500 futures surged 2.29%, while volume also increased as Treasuries sold off. Leading into Tuesday’s US session, bond contracts had been rising alongside open interest before an abrupt decline began when equities were at intraday lows, as per BBG

Chart. TYM5 Sells Off As S&P Futures Rally